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Saturday, 11 July 2009

Media Lens - Hired Hands

Part 1: Iran, Obama, Gaza, And MPs' Expenses

In a recent alert, we described how the modern corporation is an inherently predatory, even psychopathic, entity. We noted that business managers are legally obliged to subordinate human and environmental welfare to profit.
(See: http://www.medialens.org/alerts/09 /090615_the_guardian_climate.php)

Inevitably, then, corporations do not restrict themselves merely to the arena of economics. Rather, as John Dewey observed, "politics is the shadow cast on society by big business". Over decades, corporations have worked together to ensure that the choices offered by 'representative democracy' all represent their greed for maximised profits.

This is a sensitive task. We do not live in a totalitarian society - the public potentially has enormous power to interfere. The goal, then, is to persuade the public that corporate-sponsored political choice is meaningful, that it makes a difference. The task of politicians at all points of the supposed 'spectrum' is to appear passionately principled while participating in what is essentially a charade. Thus, in a moving piece, Daily Telegraph journalist Con Coughlin lamented of Iran's recent elections:

"... the democratic hopes of all those brave Iranians who have taken to the streets will ultimately be in vain. Even if Mr Khatami were to sacrifice Mr Ahmadinejad in the interests of preserving the regime, the president would simply be replaced by another Iranian leader whose first priority would be to protect the ideological foundations of Khomeini's Islamic revolution." (Con Coughlin, 'Iran's brave revolutionaries can change nothing but the faces,' Daily Telegraph, June 17, 2009)

A Guardian leader shared the Telegraph's pain:

"Iranians do not want another revolution. They wanted the Islamic republic to respond and evolve. But there is a limit to the number of times you can go to a well which always turns out to be dry." (Leader, 'Iran: Regime against change,' The Guardian, June 20, 2009)

Unmentioned by the Guardian, the "well" is also bone "dry" in Britain and America. Consider our political system:

1. Meaningful political choice for people opposed to US-UK militarism and wars of aggression: None.

2. Choice for people opposed to socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor: None.

3. Choice for people serious about subordinating maximised corporate profits for genuine action to halt catastrophic climate change: None.

4. Choice for people seeking mainstream media supporting genuine change: None.

5. Choice for people eager to elect politicians with 'ring of confidence' smiles and charisma: Substantial.

It is because of point 4 that points 1-5 are swamped in confusion and mendacity. Some readers may even now be wagging a corrective finger at us insisting that action is most certainly being taken on climate change. How dare we misrepresent the facts so starkly? Why so negative? Obama, for example, has surely made a serious commitment to greening the US car industry. In a forthcoming alert we hope to report the responses of climate scientists to some elementary questions. We asked how far governments have thus far really gone towards tackling climate change: were they 5%, 10%, 50% of the way there? One of the world's leading climate scientists responded starkly: "0%".

The role of the media is to pretend that something +is+ being done; that elections, for example, are meaningful, even "historic". As one scrupulously neutral Guardian news reporter wrote of Obama's victory:

"Just being alive at a time when it's so evident that history is being made was elating and exhausting." (Oliver Burkeman, 'Momentous, spine-tingling, absurd: an election like never before,' The Guardian, November 5, 2008; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/ nov/05/uselections2008-barackobama)

The same newspaper wrote of the election of that other great liberal hero, Tony Blair: "Few now sang England Arise, but England had risen all the same." (Leader, 'A political earthquake,' The Guardian, May 2, 1997)

More recently, the Guardian's Jonathan Freedland swooned at the quality of Obama's June 4 speech in Cairo, declaring "there will be few more masterful speeches than this one". Freedland's mind was attuned, not to the goals and logic of US realpolitik, but to the poetic:

"In an ancient city, America's still-new president aimed to heal a rift that has endured for decades, if not centuries. Barack Obama stood before a crowd of 3,000 in the great hall of Cairo University yesterday to deliver a speech that demonstrated not only his trademark eloquence but also the sheer ambition of his purpose - nothing less than bridging the divide between Islam and the west." (Freedland, 'The US and Islam: The speech no other president could make,' The Guardian, June 5, 2009)

The aim really is to "heal a rift", not to +appear+ to aim to do so, as virtually every US president (Bush II included) has done. And the problem is best described as a "rift" - perhaps a misunderstanding between equals - rather than as, say, a Western jackboot stamping on a Third World human face - forever. Public relations guru Walter Lippmann wrote in his book, Public Opinion, that social control in the modern age would depend on an "intensification of feeling and a degradation of significance".
(http://www.truthdig.com/report/page2/ 20090629_the_truth_alone_will_not_set_you_free/)

The key message in Freedland's article (and thousands like it) is transparent:

"All of this was a world away from George W Bush, who was unable to address Muslims in a tone that was not bellicose or patronising. If Bush had said the same words, they would have sounded phoney."

That awful Bush! Thank goodness he has gone so the American political brand can be made over:

"Obama's aim was to break through the suspicion and cynicism that have accreted over decades and show that America is under truly new management."

That is indeed the aim - the role of journalists like Freedland is to suggest it is something more than propaganda.

Back in the real world, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported last month on the aftermath of the US-equipped and US-backed Israeli Operation Cast Lead attack on Gaza from December 27, 2008 - January 18, 2009:

"Gaza neighbourhoods particularly hard hit by the Israeli strikes will continue to look like the epicentre of a massive earthquake unless vast quantities of cement, steel and other building materials are allowed into the territory for reconstruction."
('Gaza - 1.5 Million People Trapped In Despair,' ICRC, June 2009; http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/ siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/palestine-report-260609/$File/gaza-report-ICRC-eng.pdf)

An ICRC household survey conducted in May 2008 showed that, even before the latest assault, over 70 per cent of Gazans were living in poverty, with monthly incomes of less than 1 US dollar per household member per day (excluding the value of humanitarian assistance which they may receive). Up to 40 per cent of Gaza families are very poor; with an income of 0.5 dollar per household member per day. For tens of thousands of children, this has resulted in deficiencies in iron, vitamin A and vitamin D. Likely consequences include "stunted growth of bones and teeth, difficulty in fighting off infections, fatigue and a reduced capacity to learn". ICRC comment further:

"Most of the very poor have exhausted their coping mechanisms. Many have no savings left. They have sold private belongings such as jewellery and furniture and started to sell productive assets including farm animals, land, fishing boats or cars used as taxis. They are unable to reduce spending on food any further. The declining living standards will affect the health and well-being of the population in the long term. Those worst affected are likely to be children, who make up more than half of Gaza's population."

What has the West, including Obama, done to relieve this suffering in the aftermath of Israel's ferocious assault and ongoing siege? Nothing. In May 2009, 2,662 truckloads of goods entered Gaza from Israel, a decrease of almost 80 per cent compared to the 11,392 truckloads allowed in during April 2007. About Israel's December-January massacre of 1400 Palestinians, Obama said not one word in his June 4 speech. About the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, he said merely:

"Israel must also live up to its obligations to ensure that Palestinians can live, and work, and develop their society. And just as it devastates Palestinian families, the continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza does not serve Israel's security..."
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ jun/04/barack-obama-keynote-speech-egypt)

It is sadly standard for Western leaders to consider human disasters, first, in terms of their potential threat to the "security" of the West and its allies.

We asked Noam Chomsky (July 2, 2009) about the ongoing strangulation of Gaza:

"Is this one of those situations where a client state would relent instantly after a couple of phone calls from Washington? Is the truth that Obama could have lifted the siege, if he'd really wanted to?"

Chomsky replied the same day:

"Unquestionably. He hasn't even been willing to go as far as the mild tap on the wrist by Bush I. Same with Honduras."

Amnesty International last week gave an idea of what Obama could, and should, have said. Noting that 1,400 Palestinians, including 300 children, were killed in Operation Cast Lead, Amnesty commented:

"Most were killed with high-precision weapons, relying on surveillance drones which have exceptionally good optics, allowing those observing to see their targets in detail. Others were killed with imprecise weapons, including artillery shells carrying white phosphorus - not previously used in Gaza - which should never be used in densely populated areas.

"Amnesty International found that the victims of the attacks it investigated were not caught in the crossfire during battles between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces, nor were they shielding militants or other military objects. Many were killed when their homes were bombed while they slept. Others were sitting in their yard or hanging the laundry on the roof. Children were struck while playing in their bedrooms or on the roof, or near their homes. Paramedics and ambulances were repeatedly attacked while attempting to rescue the wounded or recover the dead.

"'The deaths of so many children and other civilians cannot be dismissed simply as "collateral damage", as argued by Israel,' said Donatella Rovera. 'Many questions remain to be answered about these attacks and about the fact that the strikes continued unabated despite the rising civilian death toll.'" (Amnesty, 'Impunity for war crimes in Gaza and southern Israel a recipe for further civilian suffering,' July 2, 2009; http://www.amnesty.org/en/news -and-updates/report/impunity-war-crimes-gaza-southern-israel -recipe-further-civilian-suffering-20090702)

And yet in response to Obama's silence, Freedland invites us to soar in poetic reverie, to connect with our highest hopes for a better world. From this perspective, critical thought is cynical, 'old-left' carping, with facts an irrelevance beside the "new" and "historic" optimism that will carry us to a better place (hand in hand with the unchanged corporate psychopath at our side).

We are invited to wallow this way in response to no other world leader. The subliminal lesson being taught is that we should allow ourselves to melt in the womb-like psychological warmth that is submission to power. It is the antithesis of the message delivered by all the great masters of culture, the true friends of humanity. Without exception, they have urged us: submit to no-one, hand over responsibility to no-one. Take responsibility for solving your own problems through your own capacity for reason and determined effort.

As ever, to escape this saccharine conflating of rhetoric and reality - Freedland was equally impressed by the "sheer ambition" of Blair's noble "purpose" - we are forced to leave the mainstream far behind. A recent Bill Blum blog comments:

"America, and the world, have to grow up. Forget color. Forget ethnicity. Forget gender. Forget sexual orientation. Forget even the class the person comes from. Look at the class they +serve+. And understand that the person wouldn't be in the position they are, or be nominated for the position, if there was any serious question about their loyalty to the capitalist ethic or American world domination." (http://killinghope.org/bblum6/aer70.html - our emphasis)

Poetry aside, the facts are clear:

"His policies and his appointments have all fallen in that area that runs from ever so slightly to the left of center to clear conservative and imperialist on the right. He's more loath to being identified as, or collaborating with, progressives than with right-wingers. Team Obama sees the left as an eccentric old aunt who keeps showing up at family functions, making everyone uncomfortable and wishing she'd just go away." (Ibid)

This is the reality and it is rooted in the psychopathic system designed over decades and centuries to serve entrenched interests that have certainly not gone away.

An Organised Criminal Conspiracy

But if politics is the shadow cast on society by psychopathic power, what manner of men and women are politicians? Peter Oborne explained in the Daily Mail:

"Nobody can say any longer that our politicians are motivated by honesty, duty or patriotism. Almost to a man and woman they have been exposed as cheats and crooks whose primary motivation is lining their own pockets rather than serving Britain.

"As a result, Parliament itself no longer looks like our greatest national institution. Instead, it has been exposed as an organised criminal conspiracy whose primary purpose is to defraud the taxpayer and serve the vested interest of a venal political class."
(http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ article-1179595/PETER-OBORNE-Make-pay- money-sack-spivs-let-away--thieves-trial.html)

Subsequent revelations exposed, among others, "former housing minister Nick Raynsford, who reportedly receives £148,000 from six private sector posts - most of them connected to housing. Ex-health secretary Alan Milburn, who announced on Saturday he is stepping down as an MP at the next General Election, earns at least £115,000 a year from five firms including Lloyds Pharmacy and PepsiCo." (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090628/ tuk-mps-raking-it-in-from-second-jobs-dba1618.html)

The expenses scandal had of course long been known to politicians and journalists - barely a word was spoken of it. In April, for example, the Guardian coyly noted "the very big hole threatening to swallow up MPs when their past expenses are published in full in July. All sorts of horrors will be revealed then." (Leading article: 'Parliamentary expenses: Clocking in,' The Guardian, April 22, 2009)

The press never saw fit to blow the whistle until the truth was leaked in the form of a DVD to the Daily Telegraph. Why should they when they are also on the take? Some 27 BBC executives earn more than prime minister Gordon Brown's £195,000. The BBC's director-general, Mark Thompson, "trousers a basic wedge of £647k".
(http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/ commentators/janet-street-porter/editoratlarge-superior-bbc-bosses -take-the-biscuit-over-pay-1722462.html)

Happily, this does not cause Thompson's organisation to be in any way biased when reporting corporate elites and their impoverished victims in the Third World.

The key revelation of the expenses scandal is not that MPs ripped off the taxpayer, but that they are indeed part of "an organised criminal conspiracy", an elite state-corporate club. Why is this important? Because these are the same people who forever claim to be driven by moral principle in domestic and foreign policy. Serbia, Afghanistan and Iraq +had+ to be bombed, they told us, in defence of human rights.

These deceptions were protected by an appearance of sincerity, by the assumption that our politicians are fundamentally well-intentioned. The reality, as MP George Galloway has observed, is that the House of Commons is a place where one can witness the curious spectacle of "a shiver looking for a spine to run up." (http://www.mgck.co.uk/Unoffishal%20August%2005.htm)

The corporate journalists ostensibly working to protect society from this corruption are part of the same system, the same elite club. In a booklet from 2001 entitled, 'An Activist's Guide to Exploiting the Media,' George Monbiot wrote of 'Our Advantages' under the title 'Integrity':

"We're genuine people, not hired hands defending a corporate or institutional position. This shows when we allow it to: an open and straightforward appeal to common sense can cut through the clamour of self interest and spin doctoring with a powerful resonance. When we keep our message uncluttered and get straight to the point we can be devastatingly effective." (George Monbiot, An Activist's Guide to Exploiting the Media, Bookmarks Publications, 2001)

By obvious implication, mainstream journalists - including Monbiot 2009, now at the Guardian - are "hired hands defending a corporate or institutional position".

We have written of the "political anthropomorphism" that obstructs perception of this reality. Yes, individuals +do+ freely write their thoughts and beliefs in a multitude of newspapers. And yes, these individuals +do+ consistently promote the same propaganda obscuring the same crimes in defence of the same vested interests. Most journalists manage to misperceive the world in an identical, system-supportive, career-furthering way. Thus Simon Jenkins can write of the Vietnam War:

"Vietnam began with Kennedy's noble 1963 intervention, to keep the communist menace at bay and thus make the world safe for democracy." (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/ jun/25/afghanistan-vietnam-taliban-iraq-Dannatt)

In fact, the Vietnam war began with the US rejection of Vietnamese appeals for post-war independence and with US support for a standard client terror state serving US needs. The enemy was not Communism - Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh appealed repeatedly to the US to support its struggle for independence. The real threat was independent nationalism challenging US corporate control in the country and in the region. As historian Howard Zinn has noted:

"When I read the hundreds of pages of the Pentagon Papers entrusted to me by [military analyst] Daniel Ellsberg, what jumped out at me were the secret memos from the National Security Council. Explaining the U.S. interest in Southeast Asia, they spoke bluntly of the country's motives as a quest for 'tin, rubber, oil.'" (http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/17049)

In similar vein, as US forces are removed from Iraqi cities, the BBC's Nicholas Witchell described them as "the soldiers who came to liberate" Iraq. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8123415.stm).

The BBC wrote on Iran:

"At least 10 people were killed when police clashed with 'terrorists' in Tehran on Saturday, state TV says. The official reports, which cannot be confirmed accuse 'rioters' of setting two petrol stations and a mosque ablaze in protest at a disputed poll result." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8111352.stm)

The use of inverted commas was striking. By contrast, the BBC subsequently wrote of Afghanistan:

"At least 10 militants have died after missiles were fired by a suspected US drone aircraft at a Taliban target in Pakistan, intelligence officials say.

"Unnamed officials said it was an attack on a militant training facility in the South Waziristan area."
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8131938.stm)

The aircraft was a "suspected" drone - there was no doubt about the militant status of the dead.

The point is that the Jenkins, Witchell and general BBC version of events is corporate media-approved. You come to think and write this way when you become one of the "hired hands". Alternatively, you are hired because your mind is right. These views are not the product of mere ignorance - no matter how many times activists expose their distortions, journalists return to the same default mode of 'respectable' writing. Monbiot 2001 would surely have rolled his eyes at these words from Monbiot 2009:

"Were it not for an [advertising] industry I detest... The Guardian would not be an independent newspaper." (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/ georgemonbiot/2009/jun/05/ climate-change-corporatesocialresponsibility)

We wrote to Monbiot asking for an explanation, but have received no reply.

Part 2: Reporting Elections In Iran And Iraq

As discussed in Part 1, media across the UK ‘spectrum’ have expressed outrage at even circumstantial evidence of Iranian political corruption. A Guardian leader observed:

“That the Iranian elections were fixed is impossible to prove, but that Iranians voted as the official figures indicate seems impossible to believe. Who could believe, for example, that Mir Hossein Mousavi, the reform candidate in the presidential elections, has lost by a huge margin in his own home town?... Electoral fixes can come in sophisticated versions, or they can come in crude and contrived forms. This one falls into the latter category.” (Leader, ‘The Iranian vote: Reform denied,’ The Guardian, June 19, 2009)

The Daily Telegraph agreed:

“The election results, announced over the weekend, lack all credibility.” (Leader, ‘Democracy the loser in Iran's “free” election,’ Daily Telegraph, June 15, 2009)

The Times lamented the lack of protest from the West:

“But surely, at least, the West could give louder voice to its outrage, its contempt for this farce. Or will it, like the pusillanimous leaders of China, Russia and its Central Asian allies welcoming President Ahmadinejad in Yekaterinburg, sacrifice a moral stance to political expediency? Mir Hossein Mousavi is neither a liberal nor an opponent of the Islamist state. Swiftly, however, he is becoming a symbol of resistance to repression.”
(Leader, ‘A Hollow Democracy,’ The Times, June 17, 2009)

The call for a “louder voice” of outrage from the West could hardly be more ironic. Consider the media response to the January 2005 elections in Iraq that took place under superpower military occupation in conditions of extreme violence.

The Iraqi interim government had forced the independent al-Jazeera TV station and critical newspapers to shut down. Former US proconsul Paul Bremer had banned all reporting on the rebirth of the Baath Party and all protests calling for an end to the occupation. In the month prior to voting, Baghdad-based journalist Borzou Daragahi reported that Iraqi reporters were under threat from US troops, Iraqi police and insurgents:

"We're unable to get access to anybody," one journalist told him. "We're frightened." (Daragahi, Arab Reform Bulletin Vol. 2, December 11, 2004)

James Forsyth, online editor for the Business and the Spectator later put the violence in perspective: “Iraq is the most difficult conflict in any of our lifetimes to report... Much normal reporting is simply impossible.” (http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/dec/10/iraqandthemedia.iraq)

The risks were such that electoral candidates were unable to canvas voters and even reveal their names. Voters were therefore not in a position to make any kind of informed choice. While US-subsidised media broadcast freely, officials working for interim prime minister and former CIA asset, Ayad Allawi, were found to have been handing journalists envelopes stuffed with $100 notes for turning up at press conferences.

Washington-funded organisations famous for manipulating foreign democracies in favour of US interests were deeply involved in the election. The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) were part of a consortium to which the US government had provided over $80 million for political and electoral activities in Iraq. NDI was headed by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, while IRI was chaired by Republican Senator John McCain. Professor William I. Robinson of the Global and International Studies Programme at the University of California called NDI and IRI "extensions" of the US State Department:

"I suspect that [NDI and IRI] are trying to select individual leaders and organisations that are going to be very amenable to the US transnational project for Iraq." (Lisa Ashkenaz Croke and Brian Dominick, ‘Controversial U.S. Groups Operate Behind Scenes on Iraq Vote’; http://newstandardnews.net/content/index.cfm/items/1311, December 13, 2004)

Robinson argued that selected leaders had to be willing to engage in "pacifying the country militarily and legitimating the occupation and the formal electoral system". The goal being to guarantee that Iraq was controlled by "economic, political and civic groups that are going to be favourable to Iraq's integration into the global capitalist economy".

In 2005, it emerged that, since 2004, the US military had been secretly paying Iraqi newspapers to publish pro-American propaganda. Articles written by US troops under the direction of the military’s Information Operations Task Force had been translated into Arabic and planted in Baghdad newspapers with the assistance of the Washington-based Lincoln Group and its subcontractor BKSH & Associates. The New York Times reported:

“The Pentagon's first public relations contract with Lincoln was awarded in 2004 for about $5 million with the stated purpose of accurately informing the Iraqi people of American goals and gaining their support. But while meant to provide reliable information, the effort was also intended to use deceptive techniques, like payments to sympathetic ‘temporary spokespersons’ who would not necessarily be identified as working for the coalition, according to a contract document and a military official.

“In addition, the document called for the development of ‘alternate or diverting messages which divert media and public attention’ to ‘deal instantly with the bad news of the day.’” (Jeff Gerth and Scott Shane, ‘U.S. Is Said to Pay to Plant Articles in Iraq Papers,’ New York Times, December 1, 2005; http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/01/politics/01propaganda.html?pagewanted=print)

According to military officials, the US task force had bought one Iraqi newspaper outright and taken control of a radio station, using them to disseminate pro-US propaganda to the Iraqi people. Neither of these news outlets was identified to the Iraqi public as being under US control. (http://www.wsws.org/articles/2005/dec2005/prop-d02.shtml)

Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies described deeper difficulties with the elections:

"An election cannot be legitimate when it is conducted under foreign military occupation; when the country is nominally ruled by, and the election will be officially run by, a puppet government put and kept in place by the occupying army and the election will be under the ultimate control of the occupying army; when war is raging extensively enough to prevent participation by much of the population; and when the election is designed to choose a new assembly responsible for drafting a constitution and selecting a government that will continue to function under the conditions of military occupation." (Bennis, 'Iraq's Elections,' Institute for Policy Studies, December 20, 2004; http://www.tni.org/archives/bennis/points27.htm)


Unleashing The Dogs Of Hell

There were other problems. In November 2004, Edward Herman noted that Iraq was “nominally ruled by Ayad Allawi, openly selected by US officials, but taken by the media (and Kofi Annan and the UN) as a genuine leader of Iraq. In the runup to 'saving' Fallujah, US military officials say that they are awaiting a go-ahead from the head-of-sovereign-Iraq, Mr. Allawi, for permission!” (Herman, 'We Had To Destroy Fallujah in Order to Save It,' ZNet Commentary, November 8, 2004)

On November 8, 2004 - two months before the elections - ITV showed footage of a speech by US Marine general John Sattler to US troops as they prepared to attack Falluja:

"This town's being held hostage by mugs, thugs, murderers and intimidators. All they need is for us to give them the opportunity to break the back of that intimidation." (ITV News, 12:30pm, November 8, 2004)

Later that day, Channel 4 News broadcast the thoughts of a US Marine on broad issues of strategy:

"We'll unleash the dogs of hell, we'll unleash 'em... They don't even know what's coming - hell is coming! If there are civilians in there, they're in the wrong place at the wrong time." (Sergeant Sam Mortimer, US Marines, Channel 4 News, November 8, 2004)

In January 2005, Iraqi doctor, Ali Fadhil, described the results:

"By 10am we were inside the city. It was completely devastated, destruction everywhere. It looked like a city of ghosts. Falluja used to be a modern city; now there was nothing. We spent the day going through the rubble that had been the centre of the city; I didn't see a single building that was functioning." (Fadhil, ‘City of ghosts,’ The Guardian, January 11, 2005)

A senior US Army commander involved in planning the offensive subsequently visited the city. Stunned by the level of destruction, he said:

“My God, what are the folks who live here going to say when they see this?” (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/weekinreview/04burns.html?fta=y&pagewanted=all)

The answer was provided by physician Mahammad J. Haded, director of an Iraqi refugee centre, who was in Falluja during the onslaught:

“The city is today totally ruined. Falluja is our Dresden in Iraq... The population is full of rage.” (http://www.countercurrents.org/iraq-awad100305.htm)

The press reaction was interesting. In March 2005, a Guardian editorial entitled, 'Stealing Democracy,' observed of elections in Zimbabwe:

"Intimidation, gerrymandering and the use of famine relief as a weapon are just some of the many abuses that have been documented so far" in "what looks like being an utterly flawed election". (Leader, 'Stealing democracy,' The Guardian, March 29, 2005)

And yet, despite having themselves reported the destruction of Falluja, the same editors declared the Iraq process "the country's first free election in decades", a "landmark election" that would be "in a way, a grand moment". (Leader, 'Vote against violence,' The Guardian, January 7, 2005; Leader, 'On the threshold,' The Guardian, January 29, 2005)

The Independent's editors asked if Zimbabwe's elections could be considered free and fair: "The answer is emphatically no." (Leader, 'Zimbabwe has been wrecked by Mr Mugabe - and this election could make thinks worse,' The Independent, March 31, 2005)

Obviously, ongoing and previous violence were central concerns in considering the legitimacy of the process:

"Much has been made of the lack of violence compared with four years ago. But Mr Mugabe has found other means of coercion... And the legacy of the government's previous campaign of violence lives on. Opposition activists are drained after years of torture and assaults."

As for the Iraqi elections: "Whether it turns out that 50, 60 or more than 70 per cent of all registered Iraqis voted, a sufficient number risked the walk to the polling station to make this first attempt at a free election for half a century a credible exercise in democracy." (Leader, 'These elections inspire hope for democracy, but cannot vindicate a misguided war,' The Independent, January 31, 2005)

Imagine if the Iranian government had attacked and demolished a major Iranian city, a centre of anti-government resistance, killing thousands of people a few weeks ahead of elections, sending a clear message to dissidents everywhere. Would our media perhaps have perceived this as problematic for the claim that subsequent elections were free and fair?

Our search of the LexisNexis media database showed that there had not been a single substantive analysis of the extent of press freedom in occupied Iraq anywhere in the UK press in the six months prior to the January 2005 elections. A Guardian report on January 4 noted:

"A low turnout might undermine the legitimacy of the first free elections attempted since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1958." (Sam Jones, 'Car bomb in Iraq kills three Britons,' The Guardian, January 4, 2005)

In another news report, the Guardian's Ewen MacAskill described how Iraq was preparing "for the country's first democratic election next month". (MacAskill, 'Blair “feels the danger” on visit to Baghdad,' The Guardian, December 22, 2004)

Helen Boaden, the BBC‘s director of news, wrote to one Media Lens reader:

"The Iraqi elections are the first democratic elections in Iraq for 50 years - acknowledged as a democratic opportunity. We know that the Americans and the British want the elections to be free and fair - but of course we don't yet know if that will be the case - especially bearing in mind security. But our aim is to provide impartial, fair and accurate coverage, reflecting significant strands of argument to enable our audiences to make up their own minds." (Boden, forwarded to Media Lens, January 21, 2005)

Roger Mosey, head of BBC Television, broke his usual silence to write:

"Dear [Name Withheld]

I may be missing something here, but can you explain why you think the British and the Americans don't want to have democratic elections in Iraq when they've set out a process and a timetable by which that's achieved? I can understand a frenzy if George W Bush had said 'no elections' - but hasn't he said the opposite?

Best wishes
Roger" (Mosey, forwarded to Media Lens, January 22, 2005)

The same complacent acceptance of the political process in Iraq poured forth from keyboards across the media. The Sunday Times wrote:

"The terrorists will do all they can to destroy democratic elections.” (Leader, 'Send more troops,' Sunday Times, October 10, 2004)

The Financial Times observed: "Iraq's first democratic election is unfolding under the shadow of a deadly insurgency.” (Steve Negus and John Reed, 'Allawi runs on claim of “strong leadership”,’ Financial Times, December 16, 2004)

The shadow of a deadly superpower occupation unleashing “the dogs of hell” was apparently not an issue.

The editors of the Express explained proudly: "It is Britain and America that want to give the besieged people of Iraq their true freedom, to hold free elections and elect a democratic government." (Leader, 'Nothing short of insulting,' The Express, October 6, 2004)

The Mirror declared that Iraq was approaching "its first democratic elections". ('Police chief and son assassinated,' January 11, 2005, The Mirror) And so on...

This is all very curious, is it not? The same British media that declared Iraq's January 2005 elections admirably free, fair and democratic are now appalled by the obvious flaws in Iran's elections. How are we to make sense of the difference?

George Monbiot got it right: mainstream journalists, quite simply, are “hired hands defending a corporate or institutional position”.


SUGGESTED ACTION

The goal of Media Lens is to promote rationality, compassion and respect for others. If you do write to journalists, we strongly urge you to maintain a polite, non-aggressive and non-abusive tone.

Write to Jonathan Freedland
Email: freedland@guardian.co.uk

Write to George Monbiot
Email: g.monbiot@zetnet.co.uk

Write to Alan Rusbridger, editor of the Guardian
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Debtwatch 36 July 2009: It’s the Deleveraging, Stupid

“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.” - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

“The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.” Mark Twain

In the last six months, the phrase “Green Shoots of Recovery” has entered the economic lexicon. It appeared to some observers that the global recession was coming to an end, while Australia itself was likely to barely feel its impact.

I would be as pleased as anyone if these “green shoots” were true harbingers of a genuine end to the economic downturn–not because I would enjoy being wrong for the sake of it, but because my expectations for the future are so bad that I’d prefer to see them not come to pass.

Unfortunately, on current data I expect that “green” is a better description of the knowledge level of those making the optimistic predictions, than of the colour of any budding economic recovery.

Of course, it could be argued to the contrary that many of those making such optimistic forecasts are highly trained professional economists, and not merely market commentators who migh have a vested interest in putting a positive spin on the news.

This is true–but far from being a reason to trust these forecasts, it is yet another reason to be sceptical of them.

Almost every holder of a PhD in economics who works for a formal economic body like the Treasury, the RBA or the OECD has been deeply schooled in “neoclassical” economics, often without knowing that there is any other way of thinking about how the economy functions. They think they are simply “economists”, and anyone who objects to their analysis or models must be uneducated about economic theory.

In contrast, virtually all University Departments of Economics contain at least one economist who rejects neoclassical economics, and instead subscribes to a rival school–like Austrian, Marxian, Post Keynesian, or Evolutionary Economics.

These contrarian academic economists often disagree amongst themselves, sometimes vehemently–you couldn’t get two more opposed points of view than Austrian and Marxian economics, for example–but they tend to be united in regarding neoclassical economic theory as pompous drivel.

There are probably many reasons for this dichotomy between University economics departments which almost always have a handful of dissidents, and official economics bodies like the OECD and Treasury that are almost exclusively staffed by neoclassical economists. But I suspect the main reason is tenure: universities offer it, while formal economic advisory bodies don’t.

As a result, academic economists who “turn feral” and reject neoclassical economics can still teach and publish and hang on to their jobs, even if their neoclassical Department Heads wish they would go away. OECD and Treasury economists who do the same thing probably find their employment coming to an end–because they don’t have tenure.

So anything published by a formal economic body like the OECD will be the product of a neoclassical economic model–and therefore, in my opinion and that of a sizable minority of academic economists, drivel (there was one exception–the Bank of International Settlements while Bill White, a supporter of Hyman Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis“, was its its Economic Adviser).

Of course, disputes between academic economists don’t matter in the real world, and most newspapers report the announcements of bodies like the OECD as statements of wisdom about the future–until, that is, a crisis like the Global Financial Crisis makes a mockery of the OECD’s neoclassical fantasies.

And what a mockery. This was the OECD’s forecast for the world economy in June 2007:

EDITORIAL: ACHIEVING FURTHER REBALANCING

“In its Economic Outlook last Autumn, the OECD took the view that the US slowdown was not heralding a period of worldwide economic weakness, unlike, for instance, in 2001. Rather, a “ smooth” rebalancing was to be expected, with Europe taking over the baton from the United States in driving OECD growth.”

“Recent developments have broadly confirmed this prognosis. Indeed, the current economic situation is in many ways better than what we have experienced in years. Against that background, we have stuck to the rebalancing scenario. Our central forecast remains indeed quite benign: a soft landing in the United States, a strong and sustained recovery in Europe, a solid trajectory in Japan and buoyant activity in China and India. In line with recent trends, sustained growth in OECD economies would be underpinned by strong job creation and falling unemployment.” (OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007/1, No. 81, June 2007, p. 7)

Yeah, right. Instead the global economy was already well into the greatest economic crisis of the last 60 years. The next two years tore the OECD’s 2007 forecasts to shreds.

One might hope for some soul searching as a result of this–and hopefully some is occurring behind closed doors. But in a clear sign that the OECD hopes to see “Business as usual” restored in its modelling approach as well as the actual economy, its current Economic Outlook discusses the process of recovery from an economic crisis that it completely failed to foresee:

EDITORIAL: NEARING THE BOTTOM?

“OECD activity now looks to be approaching its nadir, following the deepest decline in post-war history. The ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time. And the negative economic and social consequences of the crisis will be long-lasting. Yet, it could have been worse. Thanks to a strong economic policy effort an even darker scenario seems to have been avoided. But this is no reason for complacency; the need for determined policy action remains across a wide field of policies…”

“In summary, it looks as if the worst scenario has been avoided and that OECD economies are now nearing the bottom. Even if the subsequent recovery may be slow such an outcome is a major achievement of economic policy. But this is no time to relax — ensuring that the recovery stays on track and leads towards a long-term sustainable growth path will call for major policy efforts going forward.” (OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007/1, No. 81, June 2009, pp. 5 & 7)

With its utter failure to see this crisis coming, why does anyone still take the OECD seriously? Probably for the same reason that people still generally obeyed the Captain of the Titanic after it had struck the iceberg: authority counts for a lot in a crisis, even if the person in authority actually caused it.

But it’s also because it takes repeated failures before someone who asserts authority is rejected–one failure alone won’t do. So rather like Napoleon in exile in Elba, the OECD is still taken seriously by economic commentators–as with Peter Martin’s report (”Australia’s downturn to be shorter than expected“, The Age June 25th 2009):

“AUSTRALIA is set to soar out of its economic downturn sooner and more sharply than forecast in the budget, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development understood to have the backing of the Australian Treasury.

The OECD says the local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent this year, less than any other OECD economy and far less than the contraction of 1 per cent that underlies the forecasts in the May budget.

Next year the economy should roar back 2.4 per cent, also above budget forecasts and more than any other OECD economy apart from those recovering from collapse in 2009.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, greeted the forecasts released overnight in Paris as evidence Australia was “outperforming every other advanced economy in the face of the recession”.

The forecasts show Australia’s unemployment rate reaching 7.9 per cent late next year rather than the 8.25 to 8.5 per cent range assumed in the budget.”

A little scepticism in this report would have been appreciated, given the OECD’s track record–and if a political journalist had written the report, that might well have occurred. But it was written by an economics correspondent, and most of them have–like the OECD’s economists–been schooled only in neoclassical economics, and don’t know how flimsy the theory itself is (there are exceptions here, like Brian Tookey whose book Tumbling Dice is an excellent critique of neoclassical economics). So we get a report like this trumpeting good times and green shoots, with no irony (Peter Martin was far from the only one to present the OECD’s views without any scepticism–see also “Earth-destroying bomb defused – just” by Michael Pascoe or Glenn Dyer at Crikey “That’ s no green shoot, that’ s Australia in full bloom: OECD“).

Clearly it will take a few more predictive and policy failures before economic journalists realise that with the global financial crisis, neoclassical economics–and hence the OECD–is facing its intellectual Waterloo.

To be fair, official economic bodies and their uncritical fans were not the only source of “green shoot” euphoria. A large part of this feeling that the worst was over also came from the global experience of a recovery in stock markets from their recent lows.

The Dow has indeed had an impressive rally, from the low of 6547 on March 9 to the peak of 8799 on June 12–a rise of 34% in under a quarter of a year. This has led to many of the usual suspects proclaiming that the bear market is over, and a new rally is underway. Comparisons with 1929 are, of course, unjustified…

On closer inspection, reports of the death of the bear market are somewhat exaggerated.

Firstly, though the index has rallied by 34% from its low, it is still down 40% from the all time peak of October 2007.

Secondly, rallies like this came and went ad nauseam in the early 1930s, until the market hit rock bottom at 41.22 points on July 8th 1932–89% below the September 3rd 1929 peak of 381.17.

The biggest such rally occurred very soon after The Crash in 1929, starting on November 13th 1929 when the market was down 48% from its September peak. It then rose almost 50% from its low in under 6 months–and it was this recovery that inspired Hoover’s Oval Office gaffe.

But the market had only recovered half of what it had lost when the rally ran out of steam–a 50% fall followed by a 50% recovery still leaves you 25% below where you started from–and the inexorable slide of the Great Depression dragged the market down with it.

This current rally took a lot longer to start than its 1929 cousin, though it began from a comparable bottom (55% below the peak versus 48% below it in 1929), and it still has to go on for much longer and drive the market much higher to match its antecedent–let alone to proclaim the 2007 Bear Market is over (note also that Eichengreen and O’Rourke, using global data, argue that the current decline is far worse than in the Great Depression, with global markets down 50% on average 12 months after the crisis versus just 10% down after 1929–see Figure 2 here).

Meanwhile, in the Real World…

Though the stock market was providing some good cheer in the USA (at least until last week), the real economy continued to disappoint. To get an idea of just how bad the downturn has been, and how little inkling of it that conventional economists had, consider the Economic Report of the President, prepared by the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, in 2008 and 2009.

The 2008 Report made the following forecasts–note in particular the “forecast” that unemployment would be below 5 percent between 2008 and 2013.

The 2009 Report, submitted to Congress and the incoming President in January of this year, made a mockery of the 2008 Report but still drastically underestimated the severity of the downturn: it forecast that unemployment would peak at 7.7% in 2009, growth would remain positive for the next five years.

Despite the frequency with which numerous economists who failed to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis continue to report sightings of “green shoots of recovery”, the actual economic data continued to be grimmer than even their most pessimistic revised forecasts.

The clearest evidence here is that the Federal Reserve’s “stress tests” for its Supervisory Capital Assessment Program assumed that even under an adverse scenario, unemployment would be below 9 percent by mid-2009. It is currently 9.4 percent. The tapering process that is built into neoclassical economic forecasts is not evident in the data to date.

Deleveraging and Economic Breakdown

The reason that most economists continue to underestimate this downturn is because (a) the downturn is being driven by deleveraging from literally unprecedented levels of private debt, and (b) the neoclassical theory of economics, which dominates academic and market economics alike, ignores the role of private debt in the economy.

The reason that I anticipated this crisis four years ago is that I reject the mainstream “neoclassical” approach to economics, and instead analyse the economy from the perspective of Hyman Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”, in which private debt plays a crucial role. In our credit-driven economy, demand is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt. If debt is low relative to GDP, then its contribution to demand is relatively unimportant; but if debt becomes large relative to demand, then changes in debt can become THE determinant of aggregate demand, and hence of unemployment.

That is manifestly the case in America today. Under the stewardship of neoclassical economics in the personas of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the growth in private debt has not merely been ignored but has actively been encouraged, in the dangerously naive belief that the private sector is being “rational” when it borrows.

This apparent indictment of the private sector as therefore “irrational” is in fact really an indictment of neoclassical economics for abuse of language. What neoclassical theory means by the word “rational” is “able to correctly anticipate the future”–which is the definition, not of rationality, but of prophecy.

There is nothing “irrational” about being unable to predict the future–it is fundamentally uncertain, while modern economic theory hides from this reality just as Keynes’s contemporary economic rivals did in the 1930s when he wrote that:

“I accuse the classical economic theory of being itself one of these pretty, polite techniques which tries to deal with the present by abstracting from the fact that we know very little about the future.” (Keynes, “The General Theory of Employment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 1937)

Instead, in the uncertain world in which we live, the private sector necessarily speculates about the future–and some of those speculations will be wrong. The role of regulation and government economic policy should be to confine those speculations, as much as is possible, to productive pursuits rather than gambles about the future path of asset prices–a pasttime that has always in the past led to Ponzi asset bubbles.

This time, with government policy driven by neoclassical economics and its deluded attitudes towards the future, policy has actually encouraged the private sector to borrow to indulge in two giant Ponzi Schemes–the stock market and (belatedly) the housing market. It has gambled with borrowed money that share and house prices would always rise faster than consumer prices.

That gamble worked for some decades, but it then failed–in 1987-89. Had the Greenspan Fed not intervened then to “rescue” Wall Street, there is every possibility that the US would have experienced a mild Depression then–mild because the level of debt was lower then that at the time of the Great Depression (165% in 1989 versus 175% in 1929), and crucially because the rate of inflation then was high (5% in 1989 versus 0.5% in 1929).

The lower level of debt would have meant that less deleveraging would have been required to return to a predominantly income-financed economy in 1989 than was required in the 1930s, while high inflation would have meant a lower likelihood of deflation during the Depression itself, and possibly that inflation alone could have eroded the debt burden. It still would not have been pretty–certainly it would have been worse than the 1983 recession, when unemployment as it is currently defined peaked at 10.8 percent.

But what we face now will be far worse, because deleveraging from the now unprecedented debt level of almost 300% of GDP will drive America into a Depression that could easily be deeper than that of the 1930s.

This is already becoming apparent in the data, as economic historians Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’ Rourke point out in “A Tale of Two Depressions“:

“To sum up, globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US causes one to minimise this alarming fact. The “ Great Recession” label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.”

The comparison of unemployment rates (which Eichengreen and O’ Rourke didn’t make) bear this out: using the current OECD definition of unemployment, this downturn is well ahead of the 1979 recession even though unemployment started from a lower level; and using the much broader U-6 definition, which is more strictly comparable to the NBER definition used during the Great Depression, unemployment now is as bad as at the same stage of the Great Depression, and increasing as rapidly.

Deleveraging is already extreme: the most recent flow of funds data shows that private debt is falling rapidly and therefore subtracting from aggregate demand rather than adding to it. As noted in earlier Debtwatch Reports, in the modern debt-dependent economy, changes in the demand financed by changes in private debt are strongly negatively correlated with the unemployment: when debt’s contribution to demand falls, unemployment rises.

The turnaround in debt growth in the USA is unprecedented in the post-WWII period. Even during the 1980s and 1990s recessions, debt continued to grow both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP. Now debt is falling at arate of almost US$2 Trillion a year (which equates to 14 percent of GDP).

This is why the crisis exists, is so much worse than the official economic forecasters expected, and will continue and be much deeper than they currently believe: the crisis is being driven by deleveraging, and neoclassical economists do not even include private debt in their models.

As noted in earlier Debtwatch Reports, there is a very strong link between the rate of growth of debt and unemployment: when debt grows more quickly, unemployment falls; when debt grows slowly or falls, unemployment rises.

This is not because debt is a good thing, but because our economies have become so debt-dependent that changes in debt now have a far stronger influence on economic activity than do changes in GDP.

The US Government is attempting to “pump-prime” its way out of trouble by public-debt-financed deficit spending, which raises 4 further issues:

  1. this so-called Keynesian remedy can work when private debt levels are relatively low, and government policy to attenuate private speculation is strictly adhered to (see my 1995 paper Finance and Economic Breakdown);
  2. however, in our rampantly speculative economies, this policy has only worked when it has re-started the private debt binge, resulting in rising debt levels over time;
  3. this can’t happen this time around, because all sectors of the private economy–businesses both real and financial, and households–are already debt-saturated. There is no “greenfields” group to lend to, as was possible in 1990 when household debt was a “mere” 60% of GDP, and the derivatives market in finance had yet to explode; and finally
  4. the scale of the private debt bubble is just too big to be countered by substituting public debt for private debt.

This last point is evident in the data. Even though the US government has thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at government spending, the increase in public debt (which adds to aggregate demand) is more than counteracted by private sector deleveraging (which subtracts from aggregate demand):

Total US Debt is therefore falling. Though in the long run this is a good thing–we must return to a non-debt-dependent economy and once we have gotten there, stay there–the transition will be as pleasant as Cold Turkey is for a heroin addict.



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Australia's ocean territory

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The harbour in Hobart is where reporter Di Martin starts her story.

Australia's ocean territory
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Our ocean territory is greater than our landmass, and one of the biggest in the world. Yet our capacity to explore the deep ocean is smaller than landlocked Bolivia; at a time when the oceans hold the key to climate change. Reporter, Di Martin.

Di Martin: Hello, Di Martin here heading Background Briefingstraight into some big waves.

Lindsay McDonald: Hang on!

Di Martin: We're out on Storm Bay, south of Hobart with the CSIRO's Lindsay McDonald. We're looking for a state-of-the-art underwater glider that's been measuring the ocean for a month. She's called 'Betsy', and she's nearly out of batteries.

Now there's a thumping great swell coming in from the Southern Ocean.

Di Martin: How big's this swell, Lindsay?

Lindsay McDonald: They're calling it two and a half metres, it looks a little bit larger to me, some of them. I'm saying three.

Di Martin: Somewhere sticking up out of these rolling walls of water is 30 centimetres of glider tail. Will we ever find her? The search for Betsy's backside in a moment.

Gliders are part of a revolution taking place in marine science. New technologies are letting us see the ocean like never before.

But as Background Briefing finds, that's just one part of far broader changes sweeping across Australia's vast ocean domain.

Australia's blue territory is one of the biggest in the world. From the tropical north, all the way to the freezing waters of Antarctica, Australia's maritime area stretches across three oceans, the Pacific, the Indian, and the Southern Oceans.

So why has the UN just agreed to make that territory a whole lot bigger? Australia has been allowed to claim and extra two and a half million square kilometres of seabed. That's ten times the size of New Zealand.

At the Australian National University, geoscientist Neville Exon says we won the territory after two decades' hard work.

Neville Exon: And we were actually the first Western country which put in a claim under the law of the sea, and we succeeded with that claim.

Di Martin: So this is the equivalent of Australians going out and planting a flag in the middle of the ocean and saying, 'This bit's ours'?

Neville Exon: Yes, that's right. And we had to provide the scientific basis for it.

Di Martin: What does that mean in terms of the size of Australia's sea territory now?

Neville Exon: Well the size of the territory is about one and a half times the size of Australia.

Di Martin: So we have more sea than land?

Neville Exon: Absolutely. We have a lot more sea than land and we have the seabed beneath the sea.

Di Martin: That's amazing, isn't it. And most Australians wouldn't know that.

Neville Exon: No, that's right. And we have the duty under the law of the sea arrangements to actually manage that offshore area.

Di Martin: About which we know very little. Here's marine biodiversity expert, Nic Bax.

Nic Bax: We can never understand all the species which are down there. On a typical deep sea survey 50% of the species we find we will only ever sample once. We will find them once in one sample.

Di Martin: What, we'll just never find them again?

Nic Bax: We'll never see them again. So if 50% of the species we're only finding once, how many of the species are we never seeing?

Di Martin: Australia not only gets more responsibilities with this extra sea territory, it also gets a whole lot more ocean to exploit. The first audit of marine industries shows this sector already adds a whopping $40-billion a year to Australia's bottom line. That's more money than we make out of agriculture.

Yet despite our growing dependence on the ocean, it's changing in ways we don't really understand. One of Australia's top marine researchers is Steve Rintoul.

Steve Rintoul: The oceans are changing, and the impacts will affect all of the country from the north to the south. Almost every aspect of Australian life is touched in some way by the oceans, whether it's marine industries, climate, water, developments along the coasts, what may happen with rising sea levels. And by better understanding the oceans, we'll have a better idea of what's coming.

Di Martin: The ocean is lessening the impacts of climate change we feel on land. That's because it's soaking up most of the extra heat being trapped on earth by greenhouse gases. It's also sucking in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide a day.

A great service to humanity, but one that's taking a toll on the ocean and its creatures. We also don't know how long the ocean can continue to buffer us against climate change.

New marine technologies alone can't answer those questions. What's needed are deep sea research ships. In this regard, Australia is a bit of an international joke. Canada has about the same amount of sea territory as Australia, and has a fleet of 17 deep water research ships. Australia has the equivalent of one part-time vessel.

Fred Stein helps manage one of those ships and reveals a pretty embarrassing comparison.

Fred Stein: There are a couple of nations which are landlocked, which even so, such as Switzerland, have a research vessel capability, which is greater than ours.

Di Martin: As Background Briefing discovered, even Bolivia has more deep sea research capacity than Australia.

So much depends on us understanding the oceans. But there are few of us who do. We rely almost exclusively on marine scientists to tell us what's going on beneath the watery skin of the sea, and how its quiet convulsions will affect our lives.

Yet marine science has long struggled for support and recognition.

Sam Bateman is a retired Commodore with the Royal Australian Navy. He has this telling story from last year's 2020 Summit about Canberra's attitude to learning more about the ocean.

Sam Bateman: I was talking about our lack of knowledge and the importance of the maritime domain, and the Prime Minister himself walked in, sat down whilst I was talking, heard me out and then said that he disagreed with what I had been saying because Australia's priorities for scientific research had to remain the terrestrial domain, and he went on to talk about dryland farming and water, climate change, those sorts of issues.

Di Martin: What's striking about this story is as little as 12 months ago, Australia's Prime Minister didn't make the connection between the oceans and climate change. If he didn't then, Kevin Rudd certainly does now. The Federal Budget has just given a big funding boost to marine and climate science, despite the economic gloom.

Ian Poiner is head of the Australian Institute of Marine Science based in Townsville. He was in Canberra to hear the good news. Before flying out he told Background Briefing how marine and climate science have been grouped together and named one of three national science priorities.

Ian Poiner: That is unprecedented in budget documents and I think it's a tremendous outcome for the marine community, the marine scientists and marine industries, marine policy, and managers of Australia.

Di Martin: Ian Poiner says the whole country's been on a steep learning curve about the ocean.

Ian Poiner: We don't really understand the true scale, the awe, the opportunity, the challenges of Australia's blue territory that people have found difficult to really understand that, including the politicians. But I think over the past couple of years, I think we've managed to demonstrate there are significant opportunities. There are also significant challenges.

Di Martin: So what's happened to shift our thinking?

Today, a program about our ocean, and Australia's sea change in attitude towards its vast watery domain. As Arthur C. Clarke famously put it:

Reader: How inappropriate to call this planet Earth, when clearly it is Ocean.

Di Martin: With so much ocean separating Australia from the rest of the world, it's strange we don't have more of a maritime culture.

Australia's Navy is small and shipping is generally provided by foreigners. Retired Commodore Sam Bateman says for decades he's watched one government after another sideline maritime affairs.

Frustrated by the lack of progress, Sam Bateman released a report earlier this year. Published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, it's called Sea Change. At the Canberra launch, Sam Bateman told his audience how Australia's culture hasn't liked getting its feet wet.

Sam Bateman: Our national identity has largely been forged by looking inward to continental Australia. One of Australia's great poets, Banjo Paterson, captured this mindset when he wrote:

By miner's camp and shearing shed and land of heat and drought
We followed where our fortunes led, with fortunes always on ahead,
And always farther out.

Now obviously by 'farther out' he meant inland.

Di Martin: Later, Sam Bateman told Background Briefing that Australia has never realised the potential of its vast domain.

Sam Bateman: Australia lays claim to a larger part of the earth's surface than any other country in the world. It's about 27-million square kilometres; that's ahead of Russia and the United States. About half of that area is water. We are effectively an oceanic superpower but nobody recognises us as that.

Di Martin: Well we don't behave like one, do we?

Sam Bateman: We don't behave like one, no.

Di Martin: Sam Bateman works at Wollongong University's Centre for Ocean Resources and Security. A colleague there is retired Commodore, Lee Cordener. He says Australia's colonial history stunted our maritime ambitions.

Lee Cordener: Way back when the colony was established, we relied on Britain and the British Royal Navy to look after us. We were a colony that provided resources for the Motherland. So we relied on the shipping, we relied on the expertise and so on, of Britain, of that great maritime power of the 18th and into the 19th centuries, without really having a sense of ownership of the maritime domain and our own security, for example, ourselves. It's only in recent times that we've just begun to come to grips with that, but I think we've still got a long way to go.

Di Martin: That grip has firmed even further, with the news of the budget and its outcome for marine research. The change in fortune has come for a couple of key reasons. But none more than being awarded an extra two and a half million square kilometres of ocean territory by the United Nations.

Marine geoscientist at the ANU, Neville Exon says it's a great outcome, but there are some catches.

Neville Exon: It is a huge area, and obviously we have serious responsibilities, and that's covered in part by the UN rules that say we have to manage it, and if we don't do anything in parts of it, other people can come in and exploit its resources.

Di Martin: Australia has to literally get out there and explore its new seabed territory. And one of the main ways to do that is by taking core samples.

You can drill a core sample, or drive a pipe into the sea bed. Either way, the core that's hauled up is full of the ocean's secrets.

Neville, tell us where we're going?

Neville Exon: Well we're going down to the core repository in Geoscience Australia. The cores are kept there at 4 degrees centigrade, which means that they don't deteriorate.

Di Martin: Neville Exon helps run an international program drilling bits of the world's seabeds to answer big geological and climate questions. He's been taking cores for 40 years, and he's agreed to be our guide today at Australia's biggest collection of offshore core samples. It's held at the headquarters of Geoscience Australia in Canberra's south.

Neville Exon: OK, so here you see stacks of cores. They are specially stacked in special containers; each section of the core is one and a half metres long. The cores might average 5 metres in length.

Di Martin: So these metal trays just slide out and they have the cores on them.

Neville Exon: That's right. The metal trays have grooves in them.

Di Martin: We've entered a low-ceilinged room almost completely full of tray after aluminium tray of core samples. All wrapped in their heavy clear plastic bags, scrawled with black texta hieroglyphics, the austerity of the room belies the importance of the information held in these samples of the seabed.

Neville Exon says that are many reasons why we take cores.

Neville Exon: One is to do with resources, to work out something about petroleum prospects, the sort of things that are deeply buried in basins which could generate or trap oil and gas. That's petroleum. Then there's climate. Climate change of course is of great interest to everyone, and climate change is beautifully recorded in these cores, and there we're particularly concentrating on the last million years or so. These oceans are critically important in global climate. They drive the climate, the atmosphere doesn't drive the climate.

Di Martin: Weather used to be about measuring the atmosphere. It's only been in the last couple of decades we've been measuring the ocean to predict the weather.

An American scientist put it best when he said:

Reader: The key to the long-term climate prediction is in the workings of the ocean. It is the heart of the climate beast; the atmosphere is its rapidly-waving tail.

Di Martin: So, a quick primer on how the oceans drive weather. It's all about heat, and where the currents take it. Oceanographer Steve Rintoul has the piece of chalk.

Steve Rintoul: The ocean can store vast amounts of heat. The upper few metres of the ocean can store as much heat as the entire atmosphere. And it's that absorbing heat, transporting heat and releasing it again, that really drives the weather patterns.

Di Martin: There's an example of this that everyone will know by name: the drought-bringing el Nino, and its rain-bringing opposite number, la Nina.

Steve Rintoul: When there's a big pool of warm water in the western part of the Pacific, near New Guinea and Indonesia, we tend to get lots of rainfall in the western Pacific and so it's wet in Australia. When the ocean currents move that pool of warm water out into the middle of the Pacific, the rainfall goes with it, and that's why we get drought during el Nino.

Di Martin: Steve Rintoul has recently taken over one of Australia's main marine research centres.

In downtown Hobart, right on the water's edge, sits the CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research headquarters. A key part of its brief is to measure the ocean to find out what's going on with climate, a job that's just got a whole lot easier.

Remember the search for 'Betsy', the state-of-the-art underwater glider?

Forty minutes drive south of Hobart, we're at Margate Wharf, ready to hop on a 23-metre fibreglass Shark Cat.

We're about to pick up a 2-metre long torpedo-shaped glider. Betsy's been swimming around Storm Bay taking measurements for about a month. It's the first time a journalist has been allowed out on a trip to retrieve a CSIRO glider. So it must be Murphy's Law...

Lindsay McDonald: it's in the water. Somebody left their lunch on top of the cab.

Di Martin: When the skipper's sandwich goes flying off the roof of the cabin where it's been left, forgotten.

Lindsay McDonald: One went in the water - it's floating see?

Di Martin: Engineer Lindsay McDonald has a chance to show off his retrieval skills.

Lindsay McDonald: This is practice for the glider. I got it. Oh, I think they're very soggy.

Di Martin: It cannot be retrieved.

Mark Rayner: Lucky I've got a pie.

Di Martin: Having consoled himself over his sodden BLT, skipper Mark Rayner got us back on course 5to pick up the underwater glider. It's going to be a bit more tricky than a sandwich. The weather's been playing havoc with the pick-up date; the glider's batteries are nearly dead, and Storm Bay is living up to its name.

Lindsay McDonald: Hang on!

Di Martin: It's a 3-metre swell, which roughly translates as great walls of water heading in our direction. It's so big that we have to slow down to regain our bearings.

Lindsay McDonald: Yes no it's big. It's a big swell, big southerly swell. So we haven't had this challenge before with retrieving or deploying a glider in this sort of swell.

Di Martin: We've arrived at a GPS position where the glider is supposed to be, but it isn't. So Lindsay McDonald sets up his laptop to find the glider online.

Lindsay McDonald: What I'm seeing is 4307.89, there it is! 4307.892, 147.30.1665. That's where it is right now.

Di Martin: So what are we actually looking for?

Lindsay McDonald: The little yellow tail of the Slocum glider. Autonomous underwater glider that's been down here in Storm Bay for the last four weeks, sampling oceanographic data.

Di Martin: So we're looking for Betsy's backside?

Lindsay McDonald: Betsy's backside. It'll be sticking its antenna up in the air to talk to the iridium satellite. So it will only be sticking about 30 centimetres up out of the water, so it's not very high. So the swell is going to make that a bit difficult.

Di Martin: A few minutes later, oceanographer Karen Wild-Allen finally spots the elusive Betsy.

Karen Wild-Allen: Got it!

Lindsay McDonald: You can see it?

Karen Wild-Allen: Yes, 20 metres dead ahead on my side.

Lindsay McDonald: Oh yes, right in front of you, Mark. OK. Glasses off. This is it.

Di Martin: After a couple of approaches, Lindsay McDonald gets his lasso around Betsy and hauls her in, barnacles and all.

Lindsay McDonald: Ok that's it! We have one glider.

Karen Wild-Allen: Congratulations.

Lindsay McDonald: Undamaged. Look at that, a few barnacles.

Karen Wild-Allen: A few hitchhikers.

Lindsay McDonald: Yeah. Few hitchhikers. There we go. (SIGH) Glad that's over. That's the worst bit.

Di Martin: Once Betsy is secured, Lindsay McDonald has time for a chat about the new CSIRO gadget.

Lindsay McDonald: It's bright yellow, it has wings that clip on it that makes it look more like something like a missile, but instead of travelling through the sky, it travels through the water.

Di Martin: The glider samples every five seconds for temperature, salinity and oxygen. With no motor, the glider uses a piston to suck in seawater to make itself sink, or vice versa. It gets its directions from home.

Lindsay McDonald: So it gets a GPS fix whenever it's on the surface and it knows what heading it needs to take to get to the next position, heading and range.

Di Martin: So you can literally sit at a computer over in Hobart and propel this thing around if you need to?

Lindsay McDonald: You can sit at a computer anywhere in the world and do this. On Monday night, I sat there and gave it a new list of way points to go to, and it actually changed direction and started heading north in Storm Bay so that we could come out today and pick it up.

Di Martin: Technology like this must be changing what we know about the ocean.

Lindsay McDonald: It's very different, because we only sent people out in boats occasionally to take pinpoint measurements, and even that could only be done when the weather's good, whereas this glider is out here in any weather, continuously measuring, measuring, measuring.

Di Martin: So it's a quantum leap isn't it?

Lindsay McDonald: It's a huge leap.

Di Martin: The revolution in marine science technology is not just about gliders. Over the past five years a global effort has launched 3,000 floats into the open seas. Diving as deep as 2 kilometres, the floats move with the ocean currents, sending measurements to satellites every ten days.

Chief of Marine and Atmospheric Research with the CSIRO is Steve Rintoul. He says the shift in technology is both very recent and very exciting.

Steve Rintoul: We now have the ability to observe the ocean in a way that we really weren't dreaming of even ten years ago. And now using these floats and gliders and satellites, the combination of those is allowing us to really measure the ocean for the first time.

Di Martin: Which is particularly important for Steve Rintoul. He's made his name working on one of the world's ocean frontiers.

WIND, STABILISER, ICE BREAK SFX

A big portion of Australia's ocean territory is the remote and wild Southern Ocean. Icebergs, high winds and big waves make it a dangerous place to work.

People say the Southern Ocean runs in Steve Rintoul's blood.

Steve Rintoul: I love being out on the ocean and being surrounded by the sea. The part of the world where I tend to work is the windiest part of the ocean, and the largest waves in the ocean. And often when we get further south the ocean is covered with sea ice, which makes it spectacularly beautiful. And so the - part of the charge of being out there, working on the sea is just seeing the power of nature often, so that the storms can be a bit frightening, but at the same time there is a sense of awe at what the natural world can be.

Di Martin: The Southern Ocean completely surrounds Antarctica. Most of the world says it stops at 60-degrees south. But Canberra insists the Southern Ocean stretches all the way to the Great Australian Bight. Wherever the Southern Ocean begins and ends, it's critically important to Australia and the rest of the world. Steve Rintoul.

Steve Rintoul: So the Southern Ocean is important because it plays a particularly large role in influencing global climate.

Di Martin: More so than the other oceans?

Steve Rintoul: That's right. And the reason for that is that if you imagine looking at the globe from below, with Antarctica in the centre of the globe, you see that the only place where the oceans are connected and extend right around the earth, is in the Southern Ocean. So the Southern Ocean connects each of the ocean basins and that, it turns out, has a profound influence on the pattern of ocean currents around the globe, and also therefore on global climate.

Di Martin: And the Southern Ocean is changing. Partly because the atmosphere's heating up, partly because ocean currents are moving further south.

Steve Rintoul: Most of the Southern Ocean is warming. What's interesting is that it's warming not just at the surface, because the atmosphere has warmed up a little bit, but it's warming throughout a large part of the depth of the ocean. In fact even near the sea floor, 4 and 5 kilometres below the sea surface, we find evidence that the ocean is warming up and is also become less salty. It's fresher.

Di Martin: Because of all of the melt from the glaciers?

Steve Rintoul: That's right. We can't actually pinpoint that yet. So that's the hypothesis, that's the leading hypothesis for this change.

Di Martin: The ocean is changing mainly because it's doing us a favour. It's hoovering up a quarter of all the carbon dioxide that humans produce. And it's taking in 90% of all the extra heat that's being trapped on earth by greenhouse gases.

But the more the ocean warms, the less it's expected to buffer us from future climate change.

Susan Wijffels has just returned from a trip sampling the bottom half of the Pacific, part of a global effort to check what's going on in the ocean.

Susan Wijffels: We sampled the deep ocean from well south of the southern tip of New Zealand, all the way up to the equator. And along that whole long, long, transect we find the bottom 1 kilometre has continued to warm for us quite rapidly.

Di Martin: Did it surprise you when you pulled up that data?

Susan Wijffels: It did. Very much so. And it's a very clear signal. It was repeated over and over again in every single measurement we did. And it's only been recently appreciated how fast that deep ocean is warming. And what is extremely important for us in the future is how rapidly the ocean can take the extra heat and pull it down far away from the atmosphere.

Di Martin: Susan Wijffels says if we can work that out, we can better predict what climate change is going to do in the future.

Susan Wijffels: The ocean is such a dominant player in where we're going to in the future, and how fast we're going to get there, that if we don't measure the oceans, we simply won't know. We'll be flying blind.

Di Martin: Taking accurate measurements of the ocean is not only about working out how fast we're going to warm on land. It's also about the fate of your low-lying beach shack. Susan Wijffels.

Susan Wijffels: If the bottom half of the ocean is warming, sea level will rise that much faster than if just the top part of the ocean is warming.

Di Martin: Because as water warms, it expands?

Susan Wijffels: That's exactly right.

Di Martin: Sea level rise is tricky science. But luckily for us, one of the world's foremost experts works right next door to Susan Wijffels.

John Church says we know the seas have risen about 14 centimetres in the last century. We also know that rise is speeding up. What's not certain is by how much. John Church says that will largely depend on the fate of two of the world's biggest stores of water, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

John Church says the surface of these ice sheets have been melting. But more worryingly, there's been an increase in glaciers breaking off the Greenland ice sheet and sliding into the sea.

John Church: In recent years we've seen an acceleration in the flow of these glaciers into the ocean. Obviously raises concern, because this could lead to a more rapid sea level rise, a more rapid contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise.

Di Martin: Is there enough information being collected about this process?

John Church: Ice sheets are the biggest uncertainty there is, and I think the biggest uncertainty in the whole climate system.

Di Martin: But what the best science is telling us, if we don't get our greenhouse gas emissions down fast, the ice sheets will decay and the sea will rise by metres.

John Church says Canberra's plan to cut emissions is not enough.

John Church: We need to have aggressive, short-term targets. The more we do in the near future, the easier it will be in the longer term.

Di Martin: So what are you suggesting?

John Church: I think we need to aim at cuts of at least 20%.

Di Martin: So concerned that the government is not taking account of the latest and most alarming reports on how our climate is changing, John Church and two other CSIRO scientists took some extraordinary action.

CSIRO staff aren't allowed to comment on government policy. So the three scientists made a personal submission to the Senate's inquiry into emissions trading. It's a sobering read, and spells out the dire consequences of political inaction.

While the politicians work out what to do with emissions, John Church argues we need a revolution in how we predict what will happen next with climate.

More information from the oceans. Bigger and better supercomputers to crunch those numbers. So we get far more accurate predictions of what's going to happen where, and when.

John Church says we need to know a lot more about what's going to happen in 10 to 30 years time.

John Church: It's a critical timescale for many decisions. For farmers, whether they should change crops, whether they should sell out; for local councils, whether they should build new roads, new infrastructure, new dams. For State governments and Federal governments, how they should spend their money in major infrastructure decisions.

Di Martin: Better information from the oceans in order to do this?

John Church: That's one of the critical components of that - better information from the oceans.

Di Martin: That's John Church, Principal Research Scientist with the CSIRO in Hobart.

Rising sea levels and working out what's going to happen with our weather are not the only impact on our lives that will come from a changing ocean. Deep sea research in the freezing Antarctic waters is giving us clues to what's going to happen to one of the world's major food stocks - fish, and other protein from the sea.

Martin Riddle works with the Australian Antarctic Davison and makes most of his trips south on an icebreaker called the Aurora Australis. Standing on Hobart's dock, dwarfed by her massive bow, Martin Riddle begins to show us around.

Martin Riddle: Whilst you're here, there is a characteristic of an icebreaker that you really should see. The first thing is the rusty bow where it's been battered against the ice. But then, if you look at the slope and the shear of the hull, it actually shears off very gradually and that's because of the techniques for icebreaking. What happens is, you drive the ship onto the ice and then it's the weight of the ship bearing down on the ice that actually breaks the path through.

Di Martin: 94 metres long and weighing nearly 4,000 tonnes, it takes a fair while to climb the gangplank of the Aurora Australis.

The Aurora Australis is incredibly orange, isn't it?

Martin Riddle: Yes. When we first moved down here, my wife hadn't been exposed to Antarctic research before. And she asked me, 'What eccentric has painted this ship bright orange?' But I tell you, when you're in a helicopter, a few kilometres away, and everything else is white, it's very reassuring to know it's bright, it really is.

Di Martin: The Aurora Australis mostly carts people and supplies to and from Australia's Antarctic bases. But she has another job: sampling the depths of the Southern Ocean.

Martin Riddle: Now we're just stepping out onto the trawl deck, so this is the part of the ship where all the sampling equipment gets dragged in out of the Southern Ocean.

Di Martin: Now Martin, tell us about how recently there was a camera put down at enormous depths and some fascinating video that was taken.

Martin Riddle: As part of the Census of Antarctic Marine Life, we took the ship down to East Antarctica to the area of Dumont d'Urville, a place called the Mertz Polynya and we were deploying a camera mounted to a trawl, and we were sending it down to between 200 metres and some of the deepest sites were 2,000 metres. So 2 kilometres depth. And they brought back some spectacular footage of life on the seabed in the Antarctic. But we were all crammed into a tiny room to have a look at the video. And to begin with there were a few sort of gasps of awe, and then it just went silent, as we watched this video, this incredible sight, a scene that nobody had ever seen before. None of us expected.

Di Martin: Tell us.

Martin Riddle: It was a spectacular coral community, cold-water coral community with sponges, with fish, with starfish, and one of perhaps the most spectacular aspects of them is that there's a tendency towards giants in the Southern Ocean. So we get giant sea spiders down there. Sea spiders the size of dinner plates. We have polychaete worms that were 330 grams each. That means you only get three of them to the kilo. We knew that the Antarctic Marine environment supports a complex community. But to be honest, we were blown away by the beauty of the site.

Martin Riddle: There's a link to some of that video on our website.

Martin Riddle says studying Antarctic corals is not just about untold beauty.

Martin Riddle: The particular value of understanding these coral communities is that they are likely to be amongst the first communities on the planet that will be affected by ocean acidification.

Di Martin: All of that carbon dioxide being hoovered up by the oceans is making the water more acidic. Martin Riddle.

Martin Riddle: By increasing the acidity it makes the chalky skeletons, the calcium carbonate skeletons of corals, of bivalves, of molluscs, seashells, it makes them more soluble. And as ocean acidification increases, it's going to become increasingly difficult for these animals to maintain their skeletons. Now we know that effect will happen first in cold areas, and this is because calcium carbonate is actually more soluble in cold water. It's also more soluble in deep water.

Di Martin: Recent research in Hobart has shown some micro-organisms are already starting to dissolve. They are creatures at the base of the ocean food chain. And other new modelling says there are only a couple of decades left before ocean acidity researches a point where all the calcium carbonate critters in the Southern Ocean start to dissolve.

Scientists describe a layer in the ocean, below which marine life will struggle to form skeletons and shells. That layer is called a saturation horizon. And it's going to move up towards the surface. Here's Martin Riddle.

Martin Riddle: So modelling actually predicts that the saturation horizon will reach the surface of the Southern Ocean within about 30 years in winter time. Now that is going in to completely unknown territory.

Di Martin: As deep sea corals are particularly susceptible, and can't move off the ocean floor, they are the ocean canaries in the coal mine.

Martin Riddle: They're going to give us an early warning of changes that are likely to happen, but happen later in temperate areas and in the tropics. They are similar sorts of communities, they're structured in similar sorts of ways, they have the same sort of calcium carbonate, but they are going to see the effects of ocean acidification first. And I suppose the cautionary thing that we should remember from this is that the only place we actually saw any fishing activity in the entire trip was in the waters above those coral communities. They knew that it was a highly productive area, and although they hadn't seen the seabed, they knew from their catches that it was productive.

Di Martin: Ocean acidification is not the only impact on our fish stocks, and the changes are not only happening out in the deep cold waters around Antarctica. The pointy edge of climate change in the ocean is being seen off Tasmania's east coast.

At his office at Tasmania University, Craig Johnson describes how 40 new species have moved to local rocky reefs during the past three decades.

Craig Johnson: They're quite significant, quite massive changes due to the arrival of new species and the sorts of impacts of those species. And in particular, there's a sea urchin that's come down from New South Wales, and that sea urchin is overgrazing seaweed forests. So these big kelp beds that have high biodiversity, high production, just magnificent, luxuriant, productive systems. The urchin destroys the seaweed, eats it right back to bare rock and then unlike other herbivores it sticks around and it maintains that barren condition. So what happens there is that you lose biodiversity, you lose production and you lose the major fisheries from those areas. So there's no commercial fishery on these urchin barons for rock lobsters or abalone, which are the two big fisheries worth a beach price of in excess of $150-million annually. So there really is a massive change happening.

Di Martin: And Craig, I believe that the temperature of the water off Tasmania has been rising faster than in other places in Australia?

Craig Johnson: Well in fact in most other places in the world. So in terms of the global average, off Tasmania, off south east Australia, the temperature rise is about 3.8 times faster than the global average.

Di Martin: The big increase in temperature is about an historic shift in ocean currents. If you look at a map of the Pacific Ocean, there's one big circulation of water between Australia and South America. Imagine sticking your finger into the waters of your map and turning that water slowly in a circle counter clockwise. Now speed it up.

That's what climate change is doing to this circulation of water called the South Pacific gyre.

Craig Johnson: So in other words, the East Australian current that comes in at just north of Cairns and runs down the coast of Australia that is the western margin of the South Pacific gyre. And that gyre has spun up in velocity. So what it means is that the real reason that we are warming at the rate we are in South East Australia, is not because of transfer of heat energy from the atmosphere into the water directly, but because a massive transport of heat by the East Australian current running further south, more frequently, stronger flow. That's what's really driving it. The other key thing about the East Australian current is it's very low in nutrients. So that has enormous implications for the production and productivity of our ecosystems here.

Di Martin: Not much fish food?

Craig Johnson: Ultimately it means not much fish food.

Di Martin: Globally there's been greater recognition that the oceans need to be much better understood. For nearly 10 years researchers from around the world have been working on a Census of Marine Life, now in its countdown phase. Nic Bax is working on the Census from the CSIRO in Hobart.

Nic Bax: The Census of Marine Life started off ten years ago and they said at that point 'We know about 5% of what's in the oceans'.

Di Martin: Five percent?

Nic Bax: Five percent. And recently a director of Scripps said that we know more about the surface of Mars from two weeks of radar surveying than we do about the bottom of the ocean after two centuries of research.

Di Martin: Why is that, why is it so difficult?

Nic Bax: It's just so difficult to get down there. The Australian oceans go far deeper than the mountains are high in Australia. And they're vast. More of Australia is under water than above water, and getting down there takes a long time.

Di Martin: So how does Australia protect and manage species that it doesn't even know exist?

Nic Bax: There are just thousands of species down there we're never going to see. So it's less about protecting an individual species, it's more about understanding the habitat they occupy, and ensuring that at least some of that habitat is left from them to occupy, undisturbed.

Di Martin: To do that, Australia is now setting up a system of marine parks, protected areas where there may be limits on things like oil and gas exploration.

Nic Bax is deeply involved, and says there's a lot of educated guesswork going into which bits to protect.

Nic Bax: It is very much about predicting because we just do not have the capacity to go and sample all these ecosystems. That would literally take decades. Even if we were at it full-time. And so what we do have to do is use the available information, usually physical information, that we have around the continent, things like the grain size, how large is the sand or gravel down on the sea bed; what is the current stress, how fast the current is moving in that area; how deep is it? Is it a tropical environment, or is it a cooler, temperate environment, so you get different species. And that will enable us to understand which areas are quite unique, and perhaps need a greater level of protection, and other areas which are more common and can support more productive industries.

Di Martin: This is Background Briefing on ABC Radio National. I'm Di Martin, with a look at Australia's sea change in attitude to the ocean.

Critical for Australia's marine science is what's called bluewater capacity: ships that can steam well beyond the continental shelf out into the open seas.

We've been on board the Aurora Australis. But with her Antarctic base duties, she can only spare a few weeks a year for marine research.

Australia's only dedicated deep sea research vessel is called the Southern Surveyor, a 39-year-old converted North Sea trawler that's become a bit of a joke in marine science circles.

Geoscientist Neville Exon has been lobbying for her replacement, and with good reason.

Neville Exon: I've been on Southern Surveyor cruises where the stench was unbelievable. For example, I was the chief scientist on a number of cruises. We had troubles with the sewerage. When the ship rolled too much, the sewerage would pour back up out of the vents in the floor on this particular deck, and the Mate on one occasion had his entire cabin full of the muck that had gone down in the sewerage.

Di Martin: and this is Australia's premier deepwater research vessel?

Neville Exon: Yes, those things have been fixed. But in terms of its reliability, it's now got to the stage where from 2011 when it's due to be paid off, we can no longer reasonably continue to use it.

Di Martin: Why, are you concerned about it breaking up? What's the problem?

Neville Exon: It's just that all sorts of things go wrong. The main engines fail from time to time, and that can be alarming if you're in certain parts of the ocean. Things like the hydraulic systems that drive all the winches on the ship - on one occasion they failed six or seven days before the end of the survey. So all we could do was swathe mapping. We could map the seabed, but we couldn't do all the other things we wanted to do. So I have personal experience of the problems on the Southern Surveyor.

Di Martin: Breakdowns aside, the small size of the ship means that only 14 scientists can fit on board, limiting what research can be done. The CSIRO's Susan Wijffels was out on the Southern Surveyor for her recent voyage sampling the deep Pacific waters.

Susan Wijffels: So there are lots of different measurements that could be done on these cruises, we only go to these places once every five to ten years. So there's plankton measurements, there's all kinds of measurements that could be done if we could fit a larger number of people on the ship. But that opportunity is wasted because we simply just don't have a big enough ship.

Di Martin: Susan Wijffels also says there are safety issues. Especially in the wild waters of the Southern Ocean.

Susan Wijffels: You know, when you're going south of 40-degrees or 50-degrees south, the wave conditions are relentlessly big. The swell is big all the time. And our ship doesn't have anti-roll systems, and so you can imagine you are in a chemistry lab, you've got very delicate equipment, you're all carrying acids around, glass equipment, and the ship is rolling very violently, then it is a big challenge, and it does become a safety issue at times.

Di Martin: But that's all about to change, as the ABC News recently reported.

Newsreader: There's almost $300-million in the Federal Budget to help scientists study the deep and the cold. A bigger, faster ship will replace the aging Southern Surveyor.

Ian Poiner: The government has committed to the replacement of the Southern Surveyor with a new vessel with a keel - my understanding the keel would be laid in 18 months, so that is ...

Di Martin: That's Ian Poiner, the head of the Australian Institute of Marine Science based in Townsville.

Ian Poiner advises the Federal government on ocean policy, and says years of concerted lobbying is finally paying off.

Ian Poiner: We're talking about $120-million investment here. These are very expensive businesses and so they've always been challenging in terms of getting that support. But we've got it now, so it's a tremendous outcome and I think the government and Minister Carr is to be congratulated on this achievement in a very difficult economic climate.

Di Martin: Innovation, Science and Research Minister Kim Carr had a very good budget. An increase of $3.1 billion in research and development funding during an economic downturn.

Central to Senator Carr's success in the marine and climate area, is a long overdue assessment of just how much money comes from our seas.

Ian Poiner's Institute recently produced a surprising report on the ocean's contribution to GDP.

Ian Poiner: What that shows, it's currently worth about $40 billion a year, and if you actually compare the changes between, say, 2000 and 2007, it's been increasingly rapidly, something around 40% to 45% increase over that period.

Di Martin: The report gave Federal Minister Kim Carr the figures he needed to argue for a big funding boost for marine science.

Here's Ian Poiner.

Ian Poiner: When Minister Carr launched it earlier this year, he made some very strong comments about the value of this in terms of being able to articulate the importance of marine industries, and hence the importance of marine science and marine engineering to support those industries.

Di Martin: Well you speak on a regular basis to the Minister. Personalise this a little for us: was he surprised at the figure?

Ian Poiner: I think most of us were surprised at the figure.

Di Martin: Ian Poiner says the ocean revenue report came out shortly before a major re-look at Australia's science priorities. The Cutler Review singled out marine industries for investment.

Ian Poiner describes the untapped potential in the ocean.

Ian Poiner: Developments of desalination plants around the coastlines at the moment. The great promise in the future is aquaculture, ocean energy, so be it tidal or other forms of energy, is also an opportunity in the ocean. Drug discovery and bio prospecting. Most of the drugs that we eventually take, those pills on those shelves and those bottles, come from natural products, and one of the great repositories of natural products is the oceans that have been very lightly tapped in the past. So Australia is well positioned for that. Deep sea mining. There's great interest in some of the minerals, particularly in the deeper areas of the ocean, particularly around some of the active areas. So those opportunities are endless.

Di Martin: The combination of the money already being made from the oceans, and the money still to be made, was clearly a compelling argument for government when it drew up the Budget.

That sea change in attitude has been helped along by Australia's increase in sea territory, a growing recognition about the powerful influence ocean has on our climate, and grim warnings about the future of the Great Barrier Reef.

The tide has turned in favour of marine science.

But now comes the hard part: tackling the enormous issues facing Australia's ocean domain.

Here's the CSIRO's Steve Rintoul.

Steve Rintoul: It really is our time to turn around and look out to the sea. Because I believe that Australia's future is inextricably linked to the oceans that surround it. We have ignored the ocean for a long time, and it's critical to Australia's future that we pay more attention to the oceans, to seize on the real opportunities that exist, and also to manage the risks that are coming with a changing ocean.

Di Martin: Background Briefing's coordinating producer is Linda McGinnis. Research and website, Anna Whitfeld. Technical operator is Mark Don. And executive producer is Kirsten Garrett. I'm Di Martin and you're listening to ABC Radio National.

Further Information

Underwater video - Australian Antarctic Division

Climate Policy Senate Enquiry Submission

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

CSIRO Marine National Facility

CSIRO Marine and Atmosheric Research - ocean circulation animations

CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship

A Marine Nation: National Framework for Marine Research and Innovation

Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

Australian Antarctic Division Home page

Australian Antarctic Division - Aurora Australis

Australian Institute of Marine Science

Census of Marine Life

Global Ocean Observing System - Buoy maps

Home Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

IMOS: Integrated Marine Observing System

Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life - Dept of Climate Change

Australian Marine Protected Areas - Dept of the Environment

Marine Biodiversity Hub

Oceans Policy Science Advisory Group

UN Oceans and Law of the Sea

Plastic Debris in the World's Oceans Report - UN Environment Program

Bureau of Meteorology - Learn about meteorology and climate change



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