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Friday, 20 May 2011

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  • SlowTV: Unravelling rivalry: Rory Medcalf on India and China

    Rory Medcalf | Sydney | May. 2011
    Unravelling rivalry: Rory Medcalf on India and China
    In recent years, the idea of a looming struggle between China and India has seized the imaginations of prominent strategists and journalists. Here are two rising Asian great powers with rapid economic growth, expanding global interests and modernising militaries. In this Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, R... » play video
  • SlowTV: Asia's nuclear future

    Sydney | May. 2011
    Asia's nuclear future
    The Fukushima crisis has provoked a furious debate about the future of nuclear energy. Polling in Australia shows a return to a solid majority opposing nuclear power for Australia as part of our future energy mix. The Australian political leadership has declared the subject out of bounds. At this Lo... » play video
  • SlowTV: Climate change: Security and geopolitical threats. Michael Grubb

    Michael Grubb | Sydney | Apr. 2011
    Climate change: Security and geopolitical threats. Michael Grubb
    Professor Michael Grubb of the University of Cambridge addresses the Lowy Institute on the climate change 'policy triad' of technology, pricing and energy efficiency. Professor Grubb argues for a new framing of the problem aligned with security and geopolitical concerns, and a refreshed approach to... » play video
  • SlowTV: How to tackle global warming smartly. Bjørn Lomborg

    Bjørn Lomborg | Sydney | Mar. 2011
    How to tackle global warming smartly. Bjørn Lomborg
    Climate change is real and a significant challenge facing humanity. In this event in the Lowy Institute?s Distinguished Speaker Series, Bjørn Lomborg, a renowned and controversial thinker on climate change, suggests some innovative solutions to achieve significant results for the climate, and posit... » play video
  • SlowTV: China Changing Lecture 2011. Wang Gungwu

    Wang Gungwu | Sydney | Mar. 2011
    China Changing Lecture 2011. Wang Gungwu
    The 2011 Lowy Institute China Changing Lecture is delivered by Professor Wang Gungwu and entitled 'US and China: Respect and Equality'. The evolving US-China relationship is now the single most important and complicated major power relationship globally and one of immense importance to Australia. As... » play video
  • SlowTV: The world economic outlook. Richard Koo

    Richard Koo | Sydney | Feb. 2011
    The world economic outlook. Richard Koo
    Part 1 | Part 2 The Lowy Institute launches its 2011 Distinguished Speaker Series with a presentation by leading economist, analyst and writer Richard Koo. Drawing on his detailed work on Japan's 'Great Recession', Richard describes the lessons Japan's experience holds for the US and world econom... » play video
  • SlowTV: Anthony Bubalo: Where will the Arab uprisings stop?

    Anthony Bubalo | Sydney | Feb. 2011
    Anthony Bubalo: Where will the Arab uprisings stop?
    Part 1 | Part 2 The recent turmoil in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and elsewhere underlines that something fundamental is shifting in the Middle East, with profound implications for both the region and the wider world. At this Wednesday Lowy Lunch, Anthony Bubalo explores how far such uprisings... » play video
  • SlowTV: Conflict, violence and delivering aid. Pierre Krähenbühl

    Pierre Krahenbuhl | Sydney | Feb. 2011
    Conflict, violence and delivering aid. Pierre Krähenbühl
    Part 1 | Part 2 In this thought-provoking talk, Pierre Kr?nbühl, Director of Operations of the International Committee of the Red Cross (the ICRC), addresses the Lowy Institute on how integrated missions, the militarisation of aid and increasingly complex coordination challenges are impacting on... » play video
  • SlowTV: Update 2011: Ross Garnaut on climate change progress

    Ross Garnaut | Sydney | Feb. 2011
    Update 2011: Ross Garnaut on climate change progress
    Part 1 | Part 2 Speaking at the Lowy Institute to launch 'Progress towards effective global action on climate change', his updated review, Professor Ross Garnaut examines developments in action on climate change since 2008, both local and international, including the outcomes from Copenhagen and C... » play video
  • SlowTV: China and the United Nations. Michael Fullilove

    Michael Fullilove | Sydney | Dec. 2010
    China and the United Nations. Michael Fullilove
    In the past quarter-century, China has become a far more effective player in, and contributor to, the United Nations. Yet limits to the intimacy of the relationship are also becoming clear. Presenting the findings of his recent Lowy Institute paper, Michael Fullilove describes how China conducts its... » play video

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SlowTV » Rory Medcalf » Unravelling rivalry: Rory Medcalf on India and China

 Follow all Lowy Institute videos on Slow TV - The Monthly Feed

In recent years, the idea of a looming struggle between China and India has seized the imaginations of prominent strategists and journalists. Here are two rising Asian great powers with rapid economic growth, expanding global interests and modernising militaries.

In this Wednesday Lunch at Lowy, Rory Medcalf explores some plausible futures for a relationship with vast potential to shape or shake the world's and Australia's future.
Presented by the Lowy Institute, May 2011




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The Greens and Fundamentalism

The Greens and Fundamentalism
Mark Aarons - The Monthly

From 1 July the Senate will have a genuine centre-left majority for the first time in 60 years. The 1951 double dissolution election stripped Labor of its Senate majority; it has never again held or shared a majority with an avowedly left-wing party. This will change when nine Australian Greens senators (four newly elected) assume the balance of power, including Lee Rhiannon, who was recently embroiled in a public dispute with her leader, Bob Brown, over the NSW Greens’ Middle East policy.

Despite the new reality in the Senate, there are ominous signs for centre-left politics. The bitter invective recently directed at the Greens indicates Labor is rattled. Julia Gillard is desperate to shore up her flagging support among Labor’s traditional working– and lower middle–class base, and simultaneously win back left-wing voters who defected to the Greens because of Labor’s cowardice over climate change policy.

More alarming for both parties is the collapse of their combined vote. Two years ago there was talk of an emerging, long-term centre-left political ascendancy. Polling indicated a Labor–Greens primary vote of between 52% and 56%. At the August 2010 election, they did not reach 50%; recent polls place their vote 10% below the 2009 high.

Labor led this collapse. Kevin Rudd’s abandonment of his climate change platform frittered away his commanding lead in the polls. Gillard rendered this situation worse: by adopting a fake climate change policy during last year’s election campaign; then by ruling out a carbon tax; and, finally, by breaking this promise. No compelling explanation or policy detail has been proffered for these changes.

Newspoll tracked the unfolding disaster: Labor has lost up to 15% of its primary vote since 2009. The Greens have gained between 3% and 6%, but most of the support Labor has lost has bled to the Coalition, which is well positioned to win the 2013 election. Tony Abbott has promised to dismantle any carbon tax introduced by Labor with Greens’ support. So the battlelines are drawn on the environmental issue that defines the Greens. How they handle this will be a test of the party’s maturity.

The Greens’ two most recent electoral tests were in Victoria and NSW but, despite great expectations, its performance was disappointing. Before last November’s Victorian election, Newspoll had the Greens on 19%; it looked set to take several inner-city lower house seats. But its support collapsed to 11% on polling day; Labor withstood its challenge, but narrowly lost government. Similarly, in NSW’s recent election the Greens fell from 17% to just over 10%. It scraped home (with Labor preferences) to take Balmain, its first lower house seat, and also won three upper house seats, narrowly defeating Pauline Hanson on Labor preferences, having refused to reciprocate.

*

The Greens seek to attract support with their professed commitment to a “new politics”, repudiating the dirty tactics used by the old parties. Their rhetoric condemns Labor’s spin, character assassination and underhand tactics. During the recent election, however, the NSW Greens were strongly criticised for supporting the international Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign, which notoriously compares Israel with apartheid-era South Africa. Launched in 2005 by ‘Palestinian civil society’ groups, the BDS has attempted to mask its real aim, which – in the words of one BDS founder – is to establish “a Palestine next to a Palestine, rather than a Palestine next to an Israel”. That is, Israel would disappear in a ‘one-state’ solution.

The NSW Greens adopted the BDS campaign last December; the leadership immediately prevailed on Marrickville Council to embrace it. The mayor, Fiona Byrne, was the Greens’ candidate for the state seat of Marrickville and was expected to defeat Labor’s left-wing deputy premier, Carmel Tebbutt. Labor’s state-wide vote collapsed but Byrne failed to unseat Tebbutt, despite a Galaxy poll predicting a comfortable win. The BDS policy contributed to this result.

The NSW Greens leaders behaved just like the old parties. Byrne erred in denying that she had undertaken to bring BDS into the NSW parliament if she won Marrickville. She was damaged when the recording of her statement was produced; she exacerbated this error by denying she had agreed to speak at a BDS rally, only to have a flyer produced flatly contradicting her. The Greens dismissed these blunders, claiming they were a Labor “dirty tricks campaign”. This might have worked in the past, when there was little scrutiny of Greens’ policies. But the words of both the party’s policy and Marrickville Council’s resolution expose a determination to impose BDS as state (and federal) government policy.

The policy is so extreme that even those, who, like me, are critical of some of Israel’s policies (the West Bank occupation and continuing construction of settlements, for example) found it offensive. To compare Israel’s actions with apartheid is shallow and inaccurate: in one case, a white minority refused voting, civil and legal rights to the black majority; in the other, voting, civil and legal rights are universal. Israel is a fully functioning democracy where governments change after elections; an independent judiciary and media hold the government to account; and minorities (including Palestinians) are represented in parliament (under the Greens’ preferred system of proportional representation). Furthermore, the NSW Greens’ policy is silent about decades of Palestinian terrorism and aggression by Arab dictatorships.

Responsibility for the BDS catastrophe rests with the NSW Greens’ leadership, especially retiring upper house member Sylvia Hale (who initiated it) and senator-elect Lee Rhiannon. In the wake of the party’s poor showing in the March election, Bob Brown took the unprecedented step of publicly reprimanding Rhiannon. This underlines long-standing, bitter factional differences in the Greens.

In making his criticism, Brown reiterated the Greens’ national policy on Israel–Palestine. In contrast to BDS, this supports both a Palestinian and a Jewish state; it also rejects violence as a means of resolving the conflict (whether by a state or other groups), and advocates “negotiations to achieve the democratic aspirations of both peoples within an environment of mutual respect and equality”. In March 2010, NSW unsuccessfully attempted to impose BDS as national policy.

This issue is, however, only one instance of conflict between NSW and the national leadership. Over the past decade there have been several significant disputes: in NSW, these centred on struggles between supporters of retiring upper house member Ian Cohen and Rhiannon’s faction. This has been presented as a battle between Cohen’s environmental focus and Rhiannon’s social and political activism, but that is an over-simplification.

There have been several bitter pre-selection contests, especially for upper house seats, in which Rhiannon has demonstrated astute organisational skills. While she has not had unfettered victories in internal skirmishes, she has emerged as the best-known NSW Greens leader.

Individual disputes are indications of deeper problems. For some years, Brown and his supporters have worked to create a coherent national party; as the Greens’ membership and support base have grown, this has become a high priority. But Rhiannon and her largely NSW-based faction have resisted, skilfully exploiting the party’s founding ethos that control should be exercised by the grassroots, and using its ‘consensus decision-making’ process to stymie a national approach.

Rhiannon’s switch to Canberra has led to speculation of a confrontation with Brown. Ironically for a party that is built around an overwhelmingly youthful base, she will turn 60 this year while Brown will be 67. But she has virtually no support among the other Greens members of federal parliament, so a short-term challenge would be doomed. It would, however, be unwise to underestimate Rhiannon; she is a tough and seasoned campaigner who would shine as potential leadership material in any party. She has a significant weakness, though, in refusing to admit mistakes, even when it would be politically wise to do so. This was demonstrated in the aftermath of Byrne’s defeat in Marrickville. Most politically literate observers, including Brown, rightly concluded that the mishandling of BDS contributed significantly. Rhiannon stubbornly refused to concede, claiming that the policy should have been better promoted. This typifies her approach. Marrickville Council’s attempt to introduce BDS has since collapsed, amidst widespread criticism and internecine warfare inside the NSW Greens.

*

Born in May 1951, Rhiannon’s parents were Bill and Freda Brown, leading members of the Communist Party of Australia (CPA). Lee Brown (she later changed her name to Rhiannon) and I grew up together as young communists and cut our political teeth in anti–Vietnam War and anti-racist campaigns. The August 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia precipitated a bitter struggle inside the CPA. The majority condemned Moscow but a vocal minority supported the invasion. Recently, Rhiannon has sparred with Gerard Henderson about her parents’ role in the pro-Soviet faction; her defence has largely obscured the truth.

Soon after the invasion, Lee’s parents formed a clandestine relationship with the Soviet embassy, which directed and financed those who opposed the CPA’s principled stand on Czechoslovakia. By late 1971, it was clear they could not seize back control of the CPA. So the dissidents formed a new, pro-Soviet communist party, the Socialist Party of Australia (SPA), which uncritically supported and promoted Soviet policies.

Lee joined the SPA, attending its founding congress. She became a senior office-bearer of the youth wing, serving on the central committee’s youth subcommittee; attended Australia–Soviet Friendship Society meetings; and developed close relations with Soviet, Czechoslovak and East German communist youth groups. In 1977, Rhiannon led an SPA delegation to Moscow at the invitation of Leonid Brezhnev’s neo-Stalinist regime. Persecution of Soviet dissidents was widespread in 1977, with psychiatry routinely used as an instrument of torture. Repression of Jews and the wider population was also endemic under the most pervasive secret police regime in history. All of this became even clearer after communism’s collapse but was apparent well before 1977.

This would be simply history if Rhiannon had admitted her youthful errors and moved on. But, in a lengthy blog posted last August, she defended her parents’ and her own political records, noting that like “so many of their generation who joined the Communist Party my Mum and Dad worked hard for a more just and peaceful society”. This is partly true but many communists also faced up to the awful reality of Soviet mass crimes and publicly condemned them. Rhiannon’s explanation of her mother’s silence on such matters was to refer to an SBS documentary, in which “my mother talked about the internal problems that she saw in the socialist world, but commented that previously she had not gone public with those criticisms. In the context of the cold war she was unwilling to add her voice to the criticism of the socialist world.”

Rhiannon also remained silent, but now lauds “my youthful past, of which I am proud”. There are things of which she can be proud, including opposing the immoral Vietnam War and apartheid (the real version). But nowhere does she acknowledge how dreadfully wrong she was about the Soviet Union, nor express regrets for her gullible admiration of this abominable system. In failing to deal with her history honestly, Rhiannon places a question mark over her suitability for any leadership role, especially in a party supposedly built on integrity.

*

Rhiannon’s comments at left-wing conferences are also revealing. At an October 2000 seminar commemorating the CPA’s founding, she reportedly “argued that a broad-based left movement is being built already, and argued that the Greens is closest to the best of the CPA’s politics and methods”. In May 2010, she addressed the Left Renewal Conference, lamenting her job in keeping the Greens on a left-wing trajectory:



… the challenge to keep the Greens Left is huge and I’m convinced social movements are the key to that. This is the way to keep the pressure on left parliamentarians so that they work to advance the social objectives of our movement not just their party’s political interests.



What Rhiannon means by “Left” is her own brand of fundamentalism; by definition, others who have different left politics are wrong and have to be opposed in order to impose her own version. This is overlooked by right-wing commentators and political leaders – Coalition and Labor alike – who dismiss the Greens holus-bolus as unrepresentative ‘extremists’: there are, in fact, several tendencies within the Greens, most of which are not extreme or fundamentalist.

The debate about BDS illustrates this; for example, after the disappointing NSW election result, party elder Drew Hutton and emerging leader, NSW upper house member Cate Faehrmann, took the Rhiannon forces to task. Such people identify themselves as ‘progressives’ and on the Left. But they want the Greens to be a serious force with the capacity to grow its support base by demonstrating good policies that can be implemented in government. They reject fundamentalism because it does not connect with Australians and has prevented the Greens from making further electoral gains.

There are also problems beyond ideology, especially tension between policy formulation and practical politics. The Greens routinely adhere rigidly to their policies, even when political realities indicate that short-term compromise might be more effective in achieving longer-term objectives. This is frequently expressed in ‘holier-than-thou’ terms that are not suited to the realities of coalition with Labor, which remains the only route to government (state or federal) for the foreseeable future.

An example was the Greens’ decision to vote against Rudd’s emissions trading scheme in late 2009, because – among other reasons – of the risible greenhouse gas reduction target of 5% and the generous compensation offered to ‘big polluters’. Such deficiencies were real but in 2009 public debate had drifted away from a solid majority favouring action towards climate change scepticism.

Abbott’s defeat of Malcolm Turnbull was a stark warning. With bipartisanship swept aside, major reform became extremely difficult. At this point, the Greens should have voted for a scheme they believed was inadequate, while reserving their right to improve it. This would have allowed Labor and the Greens to fight the 2010 election from a position of strength: united around action against the greatest moral and economic threat of our age, with the Greens free to criticise the scheme’s shortcomings and propose major improvements through legislative amendments.

As things now stand, Australia has nothing on the books; the centre Left presently seems becalmed on polling figures that would win government for Abbott and the deniers in an election fought on a carbon tax passed by a Labor–Greens dominated Senate. The Greens blame Labor, citing Rudd’s spineless capitulation and Gillard’s gutless election policy; Labor blames the Greens for being extremists who will not compromise.

The Greens face a well-worn dilemma: how does an emerging minor party promote its key principles, and simultaneously practise ‘the art of the possible’? Even without a fundamentalist faction, the Greens would have to face this dilemma and deal with it on a case-by-case policy basis. The carbon tax debate will test whether they can balance principle and pragmatism.

But while the centre Left is in disarray, Abbott can sit back and oppose everything Labor (and the Greens) support. This is Abbott’s tactic: simply to oppose the government out of office. In this situation, Labor should deal sensibly with the current Greens’ leadership, who should accommodate themselves to the prospect of long-term coalition with Labor. The alternative is another long period of conservative government, both state and federal.

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Sideshow: Lindsay Tanner on dumbing down democracy (exclusive)

In this exclusive SlowTV interview, Lindsay Tanner tells Nick Feik about the ideas and genesis of his new book, Sideshow: Dumbing Down Democracy (Scribe). With a refreshingly frank manner, he describes in great detail how the changing media landscape has led to a degradation of the language, ideas and presentation of politics in Australia over the past decade.





Too Much Information

Andrew Charlton on Lindsay 'Tanner’s Sideshow'

Andrew Charlton


Lindsay Tanner at the despatch box, 25 May 2010. © Alan Porrit / AAP Image
Lindsay Tanner at the despatch box, 25 May 2010. © Alan Porrit / AAP Image


Recently I had dinner with a group of friends including a well-known political journalist. When I told him I was working my way through the proofs of Lindsay Tanner’s new book, his interest was piqued. He put down his fork, fixed me with his gaze and leaned forward to ask a series of questions.

“Does the book spit on Gillard?”

“No.”

“What does he say about Rudd?”

“Nothing.”

“Any news in it?”

“Nothing explosive.”

At which point my journalist friend resumed his meal and showed no further interest in the book.

If Lindsay Tanner had overheard this exchange he might have been a little amused, but not surprised. His new book, Sideshow: Dumbing Down Democracy (Scribe, 240pp; $32.95), isn’t calculated to excite tabloid editors. Rather, it is a withering critique of the media and a revealing first-person meditation on the frustrations of political leadership in the information age.

Parliament House was unusually busy on Thursday, 24 June 2010, the day Tanner quit politics. The previous evening Julia Gillard had taken the short walk from her office on the eastern side of the parliament’s ministerial wing into the prime minister’s suite to challenge Kevin Rudd’s leadership of the federal parliamentary Labor Party. The day unfolded quickly. A caucus meeting sealed the change, Rudd gave a moving resignation speech, Gillard visited the governor-general and Labor MPs filed into the House of Representatives to take up their new configuration on the Treasury benches. As Question Time ended, Tanner’s announcement that he was leaving politics was one final surprise. At the time he was keen to stress his departure was not a comment on the government or a response to the ascent of his long-time rival Julia Gillard: “This decision is driven entirely and absolutely by matters of personal circumstances. There are, frankly, two little girls and two older kids who need me more than the country needs me.”

In Sideshow, Tanner is more candid about his motivation to leave politics. He confesses that by the end of the first term of the Labor government he found himself “very pessimistic about the future of Australian politics” and “quite content to leave”. He admits his “departure from politics was made a great deal easier by the descent of our public life into the artificial media world of virtual reality”. He laments his powerlessness to get issues of substance into the national media, complaining that serious reforms he pushed through as finance minister (including the transformation of Medibank Private) “received very little media coverage”, while less substantial policies of the Rudd government, such as FuelWatch and GroceryWatch, took centre stage. “Glorious irrelevance,” he says with disappointment but no bitterness, “awaits any politician brave enough to push back against the rules of the political sideshow.”

Tanner’s book has a lot of integrity, but it comes at a cost. Tanner is unflinchingly candid about his own experiences but maddeningly silent about the other key figures in the Rudd and Gillard governments. There are no intimate revelations from behind the cabinet doors, no quotable quotes, no bitchy thumbnail sketches of his former colleagues or opponents. Readers hoping Tanner would deliver an inside perspective on the momentous political events of recent history will be sorely disappointed. The events, key personalities, achievements and controversies are all absent.

Tanner’s silence on the Rudd and Gillard governments is, perhaps unwittingly, one of the most revealing things about Sideshow. His reluctance to dish up dirt on his colleagues is understandable: he wants to criticise the media beast, not feed it with more gossip. But it still seems extraordinary that, after a decade spent working with his parliamentary colleagues to rebuild the modern Labor party, Tanner’s first book upon retirement contains scarcely a positive sentence about the government they formed.

*

Sideshow is part first-person narrative, part academic treatise. Tanner interweaves his own personal experience over two decades in Australian politics with analysis of political trends from around the world. It is a style that will be familiar to readers of his four previous books – all of them substantial, all of them bristling with challenging ideas. I read the first book Tanner wrote as an MP, Open Australia (1999), while I was at university. It was thoughtful, wideranging and intellectually adventurous. It was like nothing I’d ever read from an Australian politician. It was one of those books you want to read with a pen and a highlighter, to catch and preserve the ideas that fly off every page.

For much of Sideshow Tanner steps back from personal experience, positioning himself as a detached observer. Here he speaks in a familiar voice: a clear methodical presentation of his case, backed by a gentle wit. This is the same voice that made Tanner a strong parliamentary debater and pitch-perfect media performer. In the bear pit of parliament, Tanner at the despatch box would buoy the backbench. He was a reliable and powerful weapon in Question Time. Labor MPs sat forward when he rose to speak, their faces lightening as if to say, “we’re in safe hands.”

In Sideshow, Tanner presents his case in two parts: first, that the modern media’s coverage of politics has become trivial; second, that politicians feel compelled to respond with trivialities to the neglect of substance. The opening chapters of the book are the strongest. Tanner documents the sometimes shocking practices of the modern media. He describes the ploys and tricks of political journalists, many of whom, in his view, are constantly seeking to sensationalise and trivialise the day’s events.

Sideshow is certainly not the first publication to criticise the media’s coverage of politics but Tanner is the first former minister to detail its destructive impact on executive government. Tanner’s book is chilling because he admits his profession’s complicity in blurring the line between politics and soap opera. Tanner reveals that many politicians obsess about media management to the detriment of good government. He describes how our national leaders devote much of their day to spin, media tactics, tricks and stunts. He claims they are too focused on “winning the nightly news” with trivial announcements, populist rhetoric and contrived photo ops. Most dangerously, he says, politicians succumb to ‘mediathink’, where the initial mass-media response to a policy announcement is given more weight than the substance or long-term consequences of the policy. Politicians fret too much about the reception any policy might expect to receive in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph on the day after announcement (the so-called ‘Tele test’). The result is a government of “banal slogans, robotic delivery and trivial policy announcements”. Tanner argues that this interaction between politicians and the media produces a “travesty of traditional notions of democracy”. “Genuine outcomes,” Tanner laments, “are completely swamped by transient appearances.”

If the strength of Sideshow is its description of the soap opera that now passes for political coverage, its weakness is Tanner’s analysis of the causes and consequences of this trend. For one thing, Tanner gives the media far too much of the blame for the trivialisation of politics. Increasingly, it is people themselves, not media barons, who choose what they watch and read. The Australian media presents a spectrum of political coverage; the fact that many more people choose to watch Today Tonight than Four Corners isn’t the media’s fault, just as the lamentable closure of the Bulletin isn’t the fault of its publisher. The public simply stopped reading it in sufficient numbers for it to continue. (Its owners used to joke that it lost so much money it ought to be printed in red ink.) But Tanner can’t bring himself to point the finger at the public. As a politician, he knew better than to blame the voters and, as an author, it seems he’s unwilling to blame the audience.

The second serious problem with Tanner’s argument is his analysis of what is causing the dumbing down of our polity. Tanner again blames the media and the “mounting commercial pressure” journalists face to expand their audiences by mixing entertainment with information. This is correct in an obvious way (of course the media respond to commercial pressures) but doesn’t get to grips with the fundamental source of the change.

One possibility is that the dumbing down of traditional news bulletins and the parallel rise of specialised news platforms is merely a predictable response to technological change. New technologies – principally pay television and the internet – have enabled media companies to segment their consumer-base and deliver more tailored products to more clearly identified audiences. Every industry takes advantage of new technologies to better target their consumers. For example, the explosion in telephone technology has led to a massive shift away from the once-ubiquitous home fixed line, enabling telecommunications companies now to offer an array of mobile devices to different consumers.

The same is true of the news media, which is witnessing a seismic shift away from traditional platforms. Tonight, around half as many Australians by share of population will watch the evening television news bulletin on major commercial networks as did in 1980. Over the same 30 years, the proportion of Australians who read a daily newspaper has plummeted from 32% to 16%. That doesn’t necessarily mean Australians are consuming less news, it just means they are consuming news through an expanding variety of platforms. An interested person can now, at any time of day, get more political news coverage via the internet and dedicated television channels than ever would have been available on the 6 o’clock news.

As specialised content providers cherrypick niche viewers, traditional news media will reposition itself to cater for the remaining audience. Traditional channels know they can’t compete with the in-depth coverage of the day’s politics available from specialised channels and internet platforms, so they differentiate their offering by making it more general and more entertaining. If this argument is right, it leads to a more nuanced conclusion than Tanner’s dire predictions. Perhaps rather than destroying quality political journalism, modern media has merely made it available through different channels to different audiences. Australians interested in serious political journalism can now consume more of it; others are free to consume less. Tanner’s book poses the question, “How do we stop the media dumbing down the nightly news?”; but in a diverse modern media landscape the more relevant question might be: “How can we attract more people to serious political forums?”

*

Only two countries in the western world punish citizens for not voting in national elections. Australia is one; the other is Liechtenstein. Even in ancient Athens, the birthplace of citizen democracy, voting was regarded as a civic duty but attendance at the assembly was voluntary.

Berkeley academic Aaron Edlin has used choice theory to explain turnout in American elections, where voting is not compulsory. Edlin concludes that people are more likely to vote when they believe the election is important to their lives: “as the stakes and importance of an election increases, say, because candidates are farther apart on the issues or because it is a Presidential election, more people will choose to vote.” The same principles might also explain why, as Tanner observes, many Australians are disengaging from serious political discourse. Choice theory predicts that a rational person’s appetite for political news, just like their propensity to vote, will fluctuate in proportion to their perception of its import to their lives. Put simply, in times of war, natural disaster or threat to prosperity, people will tune in to the serious business of national leadership. At other times, some might choose to follow politics less closely.

On this analysis, many voters didn’t engage with the 2010 federal election because they took the view that their wellbeing would be little different whether Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott became prime minister. They made a rational choice to spend less time keeping up to speed with political issues and more time with their family and other priorities.

According to this theory, the responsibility for the quality of our national debate lies at least as much with politicians as the media. If politicians don’t offer differentiated positions on significant national challenges, the public makes an understandable choice to devote less time to serious politics.

These alternative explanations for the perceived dumbing down of political discourse have subtler implications than Sideshow suggests. Quality political reporting is still out there, but in different locations. And the breadth and quality of the national discourse responds endogenously to the import of the issues facing the nation.

This analysis produces an obvious solution to the public’s disengagement with serious politics. To widen the political debate, politicians need to convince people of the importance of the issues they are debating. If politicians only offer focus-group slogans, citizens will, of course, respond by allocating less of their time to politics.

*

Over his 18 years in parliament, Lindsay Tanner had been pinned with many of the labels used to describe ascending talent: ‘rising star’, ‘intellectual’, ‘moderniser’, ‘heavyweight’, ‘future leader’. He also managed to avoid many of the pejorative terms that tend to go with the territory: ‘power-broker’, ‘factional hack’, ‘head-kicker’. Tanner’s many admirers were drawn to him because he is not only a Labor star, he’s also a Labor intellectual. He is one of the precious minds capable of generating the kind of substantial ideas that can inspire a party and renew its policy agenda.

But Tanner’s public persona as a modernising union leader, dynamic Labor thinker and successful frontbencher contrasts starkly with the frustrated author of Sideshow. In public, Tanner presented the image of a confident and successful minister, but Sideshow contains a very different self-portrait. Tanner presents himself as a practical administrator, keen to get on with the business of governing, but frustrated at every turn.

This is why Tanner’s choice not to write more about his personal experiences in the Rudd and Gillard governments is significant and intriguing. The reader can’t help but wonder what transpired to cause this U-turn in outlook. The answer may have to wait for Lindsay Tanner’s next book.

Watch a conversation with Lindsay Tanner on SlowTV.


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Retrospective changes to NSW solar legislation, Coalition breaking clear election committment

17 May 2011

The Hon Barry O’Farrell MP
Premier
Minister for Western Sydney
Level 40, Governor Macquarie Tower
1 Farrer Place
Sydney 2000

Dear Premier

I write to express concern about the Cabinet decision to retrospectively alter consumer contracts under the Solar Bonus Scheme (SBS), and to expand the Scheme to allow another 40,000 applicants (extra 65 MW) access to receive subsidies.
My concerns can be summarized as follows:

Retrospectivity: It is a central tenant of Liberal and Conservative philosophy that any retrospective legislation to alter contracts is unprecedented and repugnant. As Jeff Kennett recently said “The concept of retrospective legislation I find to be totally unacceptable. I can think of no example when and where retrospective legislation can be justified.”

Retrospectivity is specifically prohibited in the US Constitution (a restriction on both Federal and State Governments). Where as a rare, last resort retrospective legislation has been considered in Australia (eg to close “Bottom of the Harbor” tax loopholes) it has been to resolve flaws that confound policy intentions. The proposed retrospective changes to SBS changes the policy itself, causing deliberate and disproportionate harm to a specific class of investors.

Honoring our commitments:
In the year leading up to the 26 March Election, our policy as repeatedly determined by Shadow Cabinet, the Party Room and re-checked with your Office, was that we would honour SBS contracts.

Our commitment, (which is still displayed on the Barry O’Farrell website) states:
"The NSW Liberal & Nationals policy will ensure that NSW leads Australia in establishing a decentralised energy sector, by honoring the State Government’s current commitments and improving the scheme to make it more effective.”


On this basis numerous statements have been made by myself and others to Parliament, the media and the community that reassure consumers their investments under the SBS would be safe.

One consumer has advised me that he literally submitted an email from Andrew Stoner’s Office assuring him we would honour contracts to the bank as part of his loan application. Another invested $100,000 in a 10 kW system after carefully checking our position. I am receiving numerous emails detailing distressing cases where significant financial losses will be incurred if we proceed with the proposed legislation. There is a major issue of integrity at stake. Allowing an extra 40,000 participants into the Scheme: I do not support expansion of Solar Bonus beyond the Keneally Government’s legislated 300 MW cap. The focus should be on closing the SBS – not making it bigger. Evidence presented to the Solar Summit suggests the Solar Bonus is no longer needed as panel prices are so low, and electricity prices have risen to the point where payback is achievable without a gross tariff subsidy. The industry can still thrive by installing panels with net metering. I estimate the cost of this decision to lift the cap at $140 million.

Clearly this large expansion of SBS is to be funded by slashing the tariffs of existing participants. The use of retrospective legislation to force the full costs of a public policy decision onto one small group of investors is unethical in my view.

Perverse impact – the legislation will further increase electricity prices: The admission of a further 40,000 SBS participants will cause another stampede prior to 1 July when the Federal Government’s subsidies (RECs) are reduced. The NSW SBS has been the key cost driver for the blow-out in federal subsidies and by expanding the Scheme we will be indirectly driving those costs up again – ultimately they will be recovered from all electricity consumers. If we complain that it’s a Federal impost, the Gillard Government will point the finger straight back at us for removing the cap on a discredited SBS.

There were better ways to reform and achieve savings in the Scheme: I estimate $500 million could be saved, without the need for retrospective legislation by:

respecting the 300 MW Cap ($140 million);

recovering the financial windfall to retailers (gained through resale of the solar power @ 6 cents p kW) ($200 million). This issue concerns the value of 300 MW of Solar power entering the grid and being on-sold by energy retailers. At present no value is ascribed to this power, and the 6 cents per kW that would be paid to a generator business in the Hunter Valley is being pocketed by some retailers (Country Energy) or returned to customers (Energy Australia pay a 66 cent solar bonus subsidy). This value should be extracted and used to offset the costs of the SBS. I note the SA Government is legislating to extract this value to fund the tariff payments for their customers.

removing “old solar” from the Scheme – over 15,000 participants had Solar already installed – some as early as 1998 and their investment decisions predated SBS. ($120 million)

Investigating fraud: The closure of the 60 cent tariff at midnight on 27 October allowed a 3 week transition period for applications to be received for people who had paid deposits by midnight 27 October. It is widely understood that during this period, the SBS was subject to fraud on a grand scale.

For the first 6 months of the SBS 28,500 systems (52 MW) were connected. On 27 October 2010 2,800 applications were lodged (7 MW) and in the following 3 weeks, another 37,000 applications (79 MW) were accepted at the 60 cent rate. It is unbelievable that 37,000 deposits were received for eligible solar systems in just one day. The 5 year cost cost of accepting these applications allegedly finalized in a single day is in the order of $400 million. If just 10% were found to be fraudulent (industry suggestions are that the fraud was far greater than that) it would save the SBS some $40 million. An “amnesty” offering transition to the 20 cent SBS could significantly increase the savings. Some consideration ought be given to this issue.

The Cabinet may have been misinformed about the impacts of the retrospective legislation:

The briefing material issued to Members contained significant errors including:

The 40 cent GFT is the most generous in Australia (ACT has a far more generous rate of 45.7 cents and their cap is 30 kW compared with our 10 kW cap)

The average consumer has a 1.5 kW system that will still repay itself in 4 years. In fact the average is 2.3 kW and for Country Energy it is 2.8 kW. The payback is being calculated in today’s panel prices – in fact prices (net of RECs) were double and triple current prices. Minister Hartcher’s modeling does not take account of the fact that most people have borrowed to fund their panels and the interest payments (compounding) were a key cost in their calculations. When SBS began, the payback period for 1.5 kW was 8 years at 60 cents. It is nonsensical to argue that those customers can repay their systems in 4 years at 40 cents.

The Solar Summit was misconceived:


“Administrative Simplicity”: The five guiding principles of the Summit included four to do with economic responsibility and openness, and a fifth principle of “Administrative Simplicity”. None of the principles related to impacts on people, including Scheme participants. The hallmark of our approach to Government was supposed to be putting people “front and centre” of policy. It is disappointing to argue “Administrative Simplicity” and omit “people” (this approach influenced the decision to adopt a formula cut to the rebate which has no regard for individual impacts).

The Solar Summit excluded the key stakeholders – being the participants impacted by the policy decision. The briefing notes claim all stakeholders reached a consensus at the Summit. In fact it appears the people who were denied a voice are the same people we now say should bear all the costs. This lack of consultation means the NSW Government can have no idea of the actual impacts of its policies.

Lack of proper policy framework: I am concerned that the decision to admit another 40,000 people to the SBS has been made without reference to a proper renewable energy policy. This means that we are tying up more resources in small scale solar without knowing if it is the best policy option to achieve our 2020 renewable energy target of 20%. Commonsense suggests it is actually the last thing we should be doing.

Scapegoating Scheme Participants:

The affected Stakeholders are being incorrectly characterized as “greenies” and wealthy people rorting other electricity customers. My experience of the affected constituency is very different. After a year spent discussing their circumstances and investments I would characterize them as follows:

People who didn’t or couldn’t invest: – The price incentives to invest in solar at 60 cents were in the order of $30 - $80 per week for payback of principal and interest. Rich people were not attracted to go into such a complex equation for this sort of money. This is why take-up rates were low on the North Shore. In the Inner City “greenies” who rent were excluded; those who owned their own homes or apartments did not have suitable and/or unshaded roof access for the panels. (in fact many inner city slate roofs are heritage listed).

People most attracted to invest in SBS: were those either struggling with their electricity bills and/or fearful of future price rises. This particularly applies to older people on fixed incomes.

This is evidenced by the higher take-up by Country Energy customers who have the highest prices and lowest incomes. Typically these people borrowed money – some took the short term interest free Green loan and hoped to repay principle quickly with the 60 cent subsidy before taking out a commercial loan for the residual. Others increased their mortgages. Families delayed investments such as a renovation, believing the SBS would repay itself. My experience is that people saw the 60 cent rebate as an opportunity to maximize the size of their systems – thus forgoing the opportunity for quicker payback with windfall profits. This fits with my belief that the main reason for investing was to “future-proof” their electricity bills.

There are no “typical” or “average” investors: The decision to invest was very different for each consumer according to their financial circumstances and the suitability of their roofs. The characteristics I have suggested above apply across a wide range of household types. What they have in common is that most will be very adversely affected by the retrospective legislation.

The politics of the decision are unacceptably high risk for the Government.
The affected constituency of fixed and mid-low income home-owners overwhelmingly voted for us and feel betrayed. Every electricity bill they receive from 1 July 2011 each quarter until December 2016 will anger them, because it will list the Solar Bonus Rebate at 40 cents and remind them in exact dollar terms of the extent of the betrayal.

In conclusion, I urge the Government to revisit the details of this decision to embark on retrospective legislation. I personally find myself in an unconscionable situation. I have given people my word that an O’Farrell Government would honour their contracts, based on Shadow Cabinet and Party Room policy. In good faith I believed the Scheme could undergo major reform and savings without the need for retrospectivity.

As you are aware our family are Scheme participants and while that has never been a factor in my position, I recognize the perception of a financial interest and I am consulting the Parliamentary Ethics Advisor on that matter.

I truly hope the decision by Cabinet can be revisited as there is ample scope for major improvement that avoids the twin evils of retrospectively and expansion of SBS.

Yours sincerely
Catherine Cusack MLC

CC Hon Chris Hartcher MP; Rob Stokes MP

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Urgent action: save NSW solar



On Tuesday the NSW Government will hold a crucial party-room vote on whether to abandon the solar feed-in-tariff.

Barry O'Farrell's election campaign was based on a 'contract with NSW'. But now he proposes to tear up government contracts with 120,000 households and businesses who invested in solar panels, and even reneg on payments retrospectively.

This proposal threatens the future of the NSW solar industry and the jobs of 5,400 people who work in it, and would leave families and businesses thousands of dollars out of pocket.

But after hearing the backlash from constituents, members of the Liberal party room are fighting back. Let's strengthen their arms.

Can you call, fax or email a Liberal member of the Legislative Council before Tuesday's crucial vote?. There are 12 Liberal members of the NSW Legislative Council (the upper house) and we've divided them up between GetUp members: can you contact John Ajaka MLC?

Name: John Ajaka
Phone: 02 9230 2203
Fax: 02 9230 2212
Email: john.ajaka@parliament.nsw.gov.au



Catherine Cusack MLC?

Name: Catherine Cusack
Phone: 02 9230 2915
Fax: 02 9230 2385
Email: catherine.cusack@parliament.nsw.gov.au

Some talking points for your call, fax or email:
Please don't copy these directly into an email: it's so much more powerful if you take a quick moment to write a personal message

Please don't support changes to the solar feed-in tariff in New South Wales.

120,000 homes and businesses have installed solar panels, they've now been told payments for the energy they put back into the grid will be cut.

These people will be thousands of dollars out of pocket if the legislation is passed.

It is unfair to make legislation retrospective - and unprecedented.

The Government should honour the contracts they have signed with these families and businesses.

5,400 clean energy jobs in the solar industry could be lost because of this legislation.

We need more solar and less dirty energy in Australia or we'll fall behind other developed economies already making the shift to renewable energy sources.

Shutting down the solar feed-in tariff program entirely will undermine NSW's clean energy sector and our shift to a clean energy economy.
With hope,
the GetUp team.


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GetUp! NSW Solar Ad



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Solar stitch up!

BY KERRIE O’CONNOR
20 May, 2011

Government promises are safe as houses - unless your house has solar panels on its roof.

That’s the reaction of upset Eurobodalla consumers and installers to the NSW Government’s cuts to the solar bonus scheme.

Premier Barry O’Farrell has defended axing the scheme and slashing the feed-in tariff from a 60 cents per kilowatt-hour rebate to 40 cents. He said the blowout in the ALP scheme from $355 million to $1.9 billion meant all households would cop a $170 rise in their power bill had he not done so.

But Moruya installers Clay and Luke Stafford say it’s a breach of contract and customers, including pensioners, who paid for systems believing they had signed a seven-year contract have been let down.

“(There are) people who borrowed money and there is one who I don’t think is going to be able to repay it in time,” Clay Stafford said.

“They thought it was a government contract so it couldn’t be changed.”

Luke Stafford said he felt “pretty ordinary” that, through no fault of his own, what they had told customers was no longer true.

“It is all pretty unfair,” he said. “Everyone was led to believe they had seven years of this 60 cents tariff and we told them it was legislation. Now, that means nothing.

“They had every right to believe us, we thought we were telling the truth, but now that has all changed.”

Gai Gibson, of Malua Bay, was one of about 30 neighbouring households who combined to purchase systems, earning a free system for a community group in the process. Now she’s “up in arms”.

“This new Liberal Government was meant to come in and do all these good things to help our society and I think this is one of the worst decisions,” she said.

“It was a contract, it was given to us for so many years and now they have gone back on it.”

Moruya natural therapist Alison Walsh is on solar at home and purchased a two-kilowatt system for her practice for “ethical” as well as financial reasons.

“It is disappointing a promise has been taken back,” she said.

She believes she will pay for her system within the warranty life of the panels, but is concerned for others.

“It is still a good ethical decision, and a good financial decision. Even with the cuts, the payback period is well within the warranty period of the panels.

“But it is problematic for people who had used those figures to justify a large investment or (are) paying back a loan.”

Mr O’Farrell yesterday said the cost of the scheme was out of control, an “ALP mess” and had blown out five-fold.

“Families across the State are already struggling to pay their electricity bills. We are not going to lumber them with an additional $170 on their bills,” he said.

Bega MP Andrew Constance this week said pensioners were shivering under blankets unable to pay their heating bills.

That, said Ms Walsh, was “political claptrap”.

“If you look at the cost of the solar rebate scheme, on the actual increasing cost in electricity prices, it is between six and eight per cent when you look at the data,” she said. “The main cost is in increasing infrastructure spending. No one is talking about that.”

However, she agreed the original 60 cents tariff may have been too generous to start with.

“But that mistake should not be carried by people who signed a contract,” she said.

Clay said about 20 per cent of his customers were pensioners.

“Pensioners are doing it to offset their power for the rest of their lives,” he said.

Clay has been installing systems in Moruya for eight years and recently hired Luke.

“We needed to get more employees, so we’ve expanded and now we don’t know what will happen,” he said.

“It is a breach of contract and will make future investment difficult. I would like to see Barry (O’Farrell) do to the coal industry what he does to the solar industry - change their subsidies all over the place, all the time with no notice and see how they like it.”

However he remains optimistic for the industry.

“(Solar) is still a way of offsetting your power and it is still not an enormous payback time.”

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Monday, 16 May 2011

Planker tries new craze and plunges to his death

IT WAS a harmless craze just four days ago.

Kerri-Anne Kennerley opened her television talk show lying balanced, face-down, on the back of a couch. Karl Stefanovic was lying flat on the Today show desk in front of the cameras.

''Planking'' involves a person lying straight, face down, with their arms by their sides and legs held steady, ideally without any facial expression.

But the act is driven by capturing it on camera and posting the image on social networking sites. One group dedicated to ''planking'' on Facebook states its mission: ''To capture the perfect Plank. Always pushing the boundaries of human limits.''

The site carries photos of ''planking'' atop public phone boxes, on the sides of power poles, on parking meters, fridges, taxis, bins, the corners of high roofs, scaffolding and safety railings on mountain peaks.

Last week, a man was charged in central Queensland with trespassing on police property after he ''planked'' across the back of a police car.

But Sam Weckert, who is listed as the contact for the ''Planking'' Facebook group - which yesterday boasted more than 76,000 followers - encouraged responsible ''planking''. ''Planking was started as a fun and quirky [pastime], and, while we have no control over the actions of others, we'd like to encourage any members of the planking group and the general public to undertake this in a safe and responsible fashion,'' Mr Weckert wrote in an email.


''A precious life has been lost. Thoughts should be with the friends and family of the individual,'' he wrote.

The response on Facebook was less measured.

Within hours of Mr Beale's death, some ''plankers'' were encouraging others to take similar risks. Others were redefining planking as an ''extreme sport''.

Still other Facebook users were condemning the craze.

''One life has been lost because of this!

''Think of what could happen if it went wrong,'' a Facebooker wrote.


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