BRUSSELS, Belgium: EU leaders pledged Friday to put climate change's impact on global security high on the international agenda and warned of dire consequences unless global warming is curbed.
The leaders emerged from a two-day summit calling climate change a "threat multiplier" bound to worsen tensions and instability through loss of arable land, water shortages, diminishing food and fish stocks, more frequent flooding, prolonged droughts and scarcer energy resources.
"We need to develop a better understanding of the implications of climate change for European foreign and security interests," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.
The EU leaders issued a report that said climate change will trigger not only humanitarian crises, but also political and economic instability, border disputes, ethnic tensions and "environmentally-induced" migration of millions of people from Africa and the Middle East to Europe.
The immediate trigger for the report was the shock to EU capitals in early 2006 when Russia interrupted gas deliveries to Western Europe in a transit pricing dispute with Ukraine.
The report is meant to bolster Western Europe's appeal to the U.S. and other polluters to commit to a global deal on greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 when the current accord — the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 that Washington signed but never ratified — expires.
The EU leaders said given their commitment to multilateralism the EU was "in a unique position" to lead the global fight against climate change. Their report gave this regional breakdown of how climate change can affect security:
AFRICA: In North Africa and the Sahel, increasing drought and land overuse will degrade soils leading to a loss of 75 percent of arable, rain-fed land. The Nile Delta could face a sea-level rise and salinization in agricultural areas that may affect 5 million people by 2050. In southern Africa, droughts will trigger poor harvests causing millions to face food shortages. Migration to Europe is likely to intensify.
MIDEAST: Two-thirds of the Arab world depends on water sources outside their borders. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers may diminish, affecting Israel, the Palestinian territories and Jordan. Existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify. Israel's water supply may fall by 60 percent this century. Significant decreases in water availability may hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
SOUTH ASIA: Sea-level rise may threaten millions as 40 percent of Asians — almost 2 billion people — live within 60 kilometers (40 miles) from a coastline. Water stress, loss of agricultural output will make it difficult to feed Asia's growing population. Changes in the monsoon rains and decrease of melt water from the Himalayas will affect more than 1 billion people.
CENTRAL ASIA: Increasing water shortages are already noticeable. The glaciers in Tajikistan lost a third of their area in the second half of the 20th century. Kyrgyzstan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers in the last 40 years.
LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN: Salinization and desertification will lead to decreasing productivity of crops, livestock. Increases in sea surface temperature will have adverse effects on coral reefs. Changes in rainfall and disappearing glaciers are projected to reduce water levels in the Andes region. Countries in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are already increasingly affected by hurricanes.
THE ARCTIC: The rapid melting of the ice caps opens new waterways and trade routes. Easier access to oil and other resources may threaten international stability.
On the Net:
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/reports/99387.pdf
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